TMF Swing Trade and Long-Term Hold
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Confluence 1:
On the 4H Chart, TMF has been respecting the upper channel. Back on 8/1, TMF broke out of the resistance trendline and then re-tested it on 8/8. That trendline is now acting as support which we recently bounced off of.
Confluence 2:
On 9/24, TMF touched into the fair value gap highlighted in gray. From there, we showed some signs of bullishness. This is where I initiated a starter position in TMF.
Confluence 3:
On 9/26, we came back to sweep liquidity (stop out initial longs) and tap into the order block (the red shooting star candle before the big green candle) on 9/3. On the Daily chart, we see the trendline was not broken (did not close below, only wicked through)
Confluence 4:
RSI also hit 25 (<30) on the 4H on 9/24, and a bullish MACD crossover occurred on 9/26.
Take Profit :
At the top of the channel AKA upper trendline which is currently acting as resistance. I plan to trim some of my position and begin to sell covered calls to generate income.
Stop Loss:
A close below the lower trendline in the low 50s. If the middle support trendline is broken, I will add to my position. If you are looking to swing trade this (not long-term hold), I would exit if we close below this line at around 56-57.
From a macro standpoint - there is economic and geopolitical uncertainty due to Middle East tensions. There are several factors that could put us into a recession, so TMF, TLT, or BND are good holds to hedge a equity-heavy portfolio.
TMF is 3x leveraged so please do your own due diligence before trading this!
My positions:
[ADDED TODAY] 100 shares of TMF @ 59.70
100 shares TMF @ 57.61
100 shares TLT @ 98.61
Sold 2 Cash-Secured Puts for 10/18 @ 57
This is in total (including CSP collateral) makes up roughly 5-10% of my portfolio.
On the 4H Chart, TMF has been respecting the upper channel. Back on 8/1, TMF broke out of the resistance trendline and then re-tested it on 8/8. That trendline is now acting as support which we recently bounced off of.
Confluence 2:
On 9/24, TMF touched into the fair value gap highlighted in gray. From there, we showed some signs of bullishness. This is where I initiated a starter position in TMF.
Confluence 3:
On 9/26, we came back to sweep liquidity (stop out initial longs) and tap into the order block (the red shooting star candle before the big green candle) on 9/3. On the Daily chart, we see the trendline was not broken (did not close below, only wicked through)
Confluence 4:
RSI also hit 25 (<30) on the 4H on 9/24, and a bullish MACD crossover occurred on 9/26.
Take Profit :
At the top of the channel AKA upper trendline which is currently acting as resistance. I plan to trim some of my position and begin to sell covered calls to generate income.
Stop Loss:
A close below the lower trendline in the low 50s. If the middle support trendline is broken, I will add to my position. If you are looking to swing trade this (not long-term hold), I would exit if we close below this line at around 56-57.
From a macro standpoint - there is economic and geopolitical uncertainty due to Middle East tensions. There are several factors that could put us into a recession, so TMF, TLT, or BND are good holds to hedge a equity-heavy portfolio.
TMF is 3x leveraged so please do your own due diligence before trading this!
My positions:
[ADDED TODAY] 100 shares of TMF @ 59.70
100 shares TMF @ 57.61
100 shares TLT @ 98.61
Sold 2 Cash-Secured Puts for 10/18 @ 57
This is in total (including CSP collateral) makes up roughly 5-10% of my portfolio.
Trade attivo
Still holding the trendline and gap on the 4HCommento
Lost the 4H trendline and gap. Port strike is over now so could be good for TMF as concerns of reigniting inflation subside.
Note we have non-farm payrolls and unemployment data come out tomorrow pre-market. Looking for the 55 support level to hold and hopefully we can re-capture the upward channel.
Commento
Jobs came in hot so case for more aggressive rate cuts is weakening. Rolled my TMF CSPs out to 11/15 for a net credit, still at the 57 strike. I will hold my shares long-term but short term looks bearish. Future data or downward revision of the jobs number could change this.Commento
Added @ 52.40 - wicking off the bottom trendline
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