MARKETS week ahead: May 19 – 25
Last week in the news
A new week with new all time highs for S&P 500. Posted inflation figures in the US supported market optimism on Fed's rate cut in September, where the index was pushed to the higher grounds. S&P 500 reached the level of 5.325 on Thursday, still, ending the week at 5.303. The price of Gold was also supported by the expectations on the Fed's rate cut but also on expectations on China's significant stimulus for the boost of its economy. The price of gold reached the level of $2.420 on Fridays trading session, however, its ATH currently stands at $2.430. The USD lost some of its value during the week, while Treasury yields were traded in a mixed manner, with the 10Y benchmark ending the week at 4.42%. It was also a good week for the crypto market. Bitcoin managed to move away from 60K support, and in a swift move reached a level of 67.5K.
The latest economic data in the US might provide some glimpse that the inflation is slowing down. The posted inflation rate was standing at 3.4% in April on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April from 3.8% in March y/y. However, markets are still digesting the latest inflation data with other economic data related to the US economy, especially data on jobs and consumer sentiment. The retail sales were at 0% on a monthly basis in April, which was significantly lower from 0.4% expected by the market. These data are showing that the economy is slightly losing ground as a consequence of high interest rates, and that the Fed will be forced to finally cut the rates during the course of this year. Current expectations, with odds of some 54% are that the first cut will be in September.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley analyzed the potential number of Fed's rate cuts during this year. They are noting that current expectations and market pricing are favoring two rate cuts this year. However, in their opinion, this might be underestimated, as they are expecting three rate cuts. This opinion is supported by their estimation of disinflation which has started with April CPI data. The first rate cut, by their analysis, should occur in September, as June might be premature.
While their US colleagues are focused on potential rate cuts, Swiss UBS is more focused on the price of gold. Analysts from the Swiss UBS bank warned their clients of a potential pull-back in the price of gold. This came in a note to investors. They are stating that the current macro uncertainty could bring some higher volatility to the price of gold, in which sense, they recommend hedging of investors positions. On the other hand, they have stated that they remain bullish on the long-run, with a current price target of $2.500 as of the end of this year.
Crypto market cap
The minute when some traders started with public complaints that the BTC market became “boring”, BTC decided to show that they are not right. During the previous week the crypto market returned to its old mood characterized with sudden and swift moves toward the one side. Although the majority of coins gained during the week, still, it was Bitcoin which moved the total crypto market capitalization to the upside. It has been increased by 8% on a weekly level, where a total 178B has been added to the value. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased from the week before to the level of 115B on a daily basis, from 122B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 724B, which represents a 44% surge from the beginning of this year.
BTC was the coin which led the crypto market to the upside during the previous week. The coin gained more than 10% on a weekly basis, adding 120B to its total market value. ETH also performed relatively well, through an increase in its market cap of 7.1% w/w, increasing it by 25B. Significant weekly gainer was also Solana, which managed to add more than 12B to its value, increasing it by more than 19% w/w. Bitcoin Cash gained on the surge of BTC, whose market cap was increased by 11.5%. LINK should be also mentioned as a significant gainer, as this coin increased its value by 20.8% within a single week. Majority of other altcoins gained somewhere between 3% and 8% during the week. There have been only several weekly losers, like Tron, which dropped in value by 3%, Binance Coin lost 1.8B in value or 2%, while interestingly, Bitcoin Gold was down by 8%.
There have been some developments when circulating coins are in question during the week. Tether managed to add 0.4% more coins to the market, increasing its total market value by this percentage. Miota increased its coins in circulation by 0.6% on a weekly level, while traditionally, Filecoin added 0.4% more coins to the market. One of the rare coins which decreased its number of coins on the market was XRP, whose number dropped by 0.1% w/w.
Crypto futures market
There have been some interesting developments on the crypto futures market during the previous week when it comes to ETH futures. Although short term futures were traded higher by 7.4% on a weekly basis, which was in line with the spot market, still, the long term ones were traded lower by more than 2% on a weekly basis. This was quite an interesting movement, considering that it implies that investors are currently not quite sure about the future price of ETH. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $3.091, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $3.230.
BTC futures were fully following investors' optimism from the spot market. Short term futures were traded above 10% higher, while those with longer maturities were last traded above 4% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $71.705, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $73.580.
A new week with new all time highs for S&P 500. Posted inflation figures in the US supported market optimism on Fed's rate cut in September, where the index was pushed to the higher grounds. S&P 500 reached the level of 5.325 on Thursday, still, ending the week at 5.303. The price of Gold was also supported by the expectations on the Fed's rate cut but also on expectations on China's significant stimulus for the boost of its economy. The price of gold reached the level of $2.420 on Fridays trading session, however, its ATH currently stands at $2.430. The USD lost some of its value during the week, while Treasury yields were traded in a mixed manner, with the 10Y benchmark ending the week at 4.42%. It was also a good week for the crypto market. Bitcoin managed to move away from 60K support, and in a swift move reached a level of 67.5K.
The latest economic data in the US might provide some glimpse that the inflation is slowing down. The posted inflation rate was standing at 3.4% in April on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April from 3.8% in March y/y. However, markets are still digesting the latest inflation data with other economic data related to the US economy, especially data on jobs and consumer sentiment. The retail sales were at 0% on a monthly basis in April, which was significantly lower from 0.4% expected by the market. These data are showing that the economy is slightly losing ground as a consequence of high interest rates, and that the Fed will be forced to finally cut the rates during the course of this year. Current expectations, with odds of some 54% are that the first cut will be in September.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley analyzed the potential number of Fed's rate cuts during this year. They are noting that current expectations and market pricing are favoring two rate cuts this year. However, in their opinion, this might be underestimated, as they are expecting three rate cuts. This opinion is supported by their estimation of disinflation which has started with April CPI data. The first rate cut, by their analysis, should occur in September, as June might be premature.
While their US colleagues are focused on potential rate cuts, Swiss UBS is more focused on the price of gold. Analysts from the Swiss UBS bank warned their clients of a potential pull-back in the price of gold. This came in a note to investors. They are stating that the current macro uncertainty could bring some higher volatility to the price of gold, in which sense, they recommend hedging of investors positions. On the other hand, they have stated that they remain bullish on the long-run, with a current price target of $2.500 as of the end of this year.
Crypto market cap
The minute when some traders started with public complaints that the BTC market became “boring”, BTC decided to show that they are not right. During the previous week the crypto market returned to its old mood characterized with sudden and swift moves toward the one side. Although the majority of coins gained during the week, still, it was Bitcoin which moved the total crypto market capitalization to the upside. It has been increased by 8% on a weekly level, where a total 178B has been added to the value. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased from the week before to the level of 115B on a daily basis, from 122B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 724B, which represents a 44% surge from the beginning of this year.
BTC was the coin which led the crypto market to the upside during the previous week. The coin gained more than 10% on a weekly basis, adding 120B to its total market value. ETH also performed relatively well, through an increase in its market cap of 7.1% w/w, increasing it by 25B. Significant weekly gainer was also Solana, which managed to add more than 12B to its value, increasing it by more than 19% w/w. Bitcoin Cash gained on the surge of BTC, whose market cap was increased by 11.5%. LINK should be also mentioned as a significant gainer, as this coin increased its value by 20.8% within a single week. Majority of other altcoins gained somewhere between 3% and 8% during the week. There have been only several weekly losers, like Tron, which dropped in value by 3%, Binance Coin lost 1.8B in value or 2%, while interestingly, Bitcoin Gold was down by 8%.
There have been some developments when circulating coins are in question during the week. Tether managed to add 0.4% more coins to the market, increasing its total market value by this percentage. Miota increased its coins in circulation by 0.6% on a weekly level, while traditionally, Filecoin added 0.4% more coins to the market. One of the rare coins which decreased its number of coins on the market was XRP, whose number dropped by 0.1% w/w.
Crypto futures market
There have been some interesting developments on the crypto futures market during the previous week when it comes to ETH futures. Although short term futures were traded higher by 7.4% on a weekly basis, which was in line with the spot market, still, the long term ones were traded lower by more than 2% on a weekly basis. This was quite an interesting movement, considering that it implies that investors are currently not quite sure about the future price of ETH. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $3.091, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $3.230.
BTC futures were fully following investors' optimism from the spot market. Short term futures were traded above 10% higher, while those with longer maturities were last traded above 4% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $71.705, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $73.580.
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