When is the best time to invest TSMC? 25.01.20

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Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company).

Weekly Chart Analysis
Chart: istantanea

Looking at the weekly chart, TSMC has been in a consistent uptrend since 2008. The chart shows a steady upward channel with higher lows and no significant breaks below the trendline.

Key Observations:

Since 2008, TSMC has not experienced any dramatic corrections.
The largest correction was approximately 50%, while most other corrections were around 30%.
The overall trend remains strongly bullish.

Analyzing TSMC Using Pitchfork
Chart: istantanea

Using the pitchfork tool, the red median line indicates an overbought zone. In contrast, the blue lower zone signals an ideal entry point for long-term investors.

Key Insights:

While the price is still climbing with higher lows, the 15-year-long uptrend makes a trendline break unlikely in the near term.
If a correction occurs, the blue zone around $108 could provide an excellent buying opportunity.
This level aligns with the lower boundary of the yellow supply zone, suggesting it is a strong support area.
A decline to $108 would represent a 50% correction from the current price, a level where TSMC has historically rebounded.

Current Daily Chart Analysis
Chart: istantanea

Currently, TSMC is trading near its all-time high, making the suggestion of a 50% correction seem unrealistic. But let’s take a step back and think critically:

What is your goal when buying at an all-time high?

Are you setting a price target for the stock?
Or are you focused on your personal profit target?
If it were me, I wouldn’t consider this the time to buy. Instead, I would wait for a correction. If I believe TSMC is a great company, I would revisit the potential buy zone I mentioned earlier, combining it with my assessment of whether the correction is deep enough to justify entry.

Conclusion

Upside Potential: TSMC could go higher, but at this point, it likely won’t be my gain.
Current Risk: The stock is at an all-time high, and there’s no historical reference for what lies beyond.
Recommended Strategy: Avoid buying at current levels. Instead, wait for a correction. Historically, TSMC has rebounded strongly from pullbacks, and the same could happen again.
Final Thought: History repeats itself. Wait for the right moment and be prepared.

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