Brent Crude Oil: possible supply disruptions push prices up
Current trend
Brent Crude Oil quotes are actively growing for the second week in a row and today exceeded the 118.00 mark.
The current growth continues to be supported by fears of serious interruptions in oil supplies from Russia, which occupies one of the leading places in the world export of "black gold". In addition, investors were disappointed by the position of the participants in the OPEC+ deal, who, even in the current situation, did not change the monthly volumes of energy output to the market. At the last meeting of the alliance, producers agreed to increase production in April by 400K barrels per day. It is worth considering that of all the parties to the agreement, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reserve production capacities, the rest may not choose the quota they have, as, for example, is happening in Iraq. Therefore, it is hardly possible to increase the size of production at the present time, despite the pressure of exporters. In the current situation, the consumer countries participating in the International Energy Agency (IEA) have agreed to release part of the oil reserves in order to try to stop the price increase. It is assumed that 60M barrels of "black gold" will be brought to the market, of which 30M barrels are in the USA. Nevertheless, experts believe that these measures will not be able to significantly adjust prices, and the most effective means of rebalancing the market will be a natural decline in demand due to the high cost of energy resources.
Support and resistance
The nearest price growth targets may be 125.00 (Murray [+2/8]) and 133.50 (Fibo expansion of 100.0%). In case of a breakdown of 109.20 (Fibo expansion of 61.8%), a correction may begin to 100.00 (Murray [8/8]) and 95.50 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands). Technical indicators generally point out continued growth: the Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed upwards, the MACD histogram is growing in a positive zone. At the same time, the exit of the price beyond the upper Bollinger Band and the entry of Stochastic into the overbought zone do not exclude a short-term correction.
Resistance levels: 125.00, 133.50.
Support levels: 109.20, 100.00, 95.50.
Brent Crude Oil quotes are actively growing for the second week in a row and today exceeded the 118.00 mark.
The current growth continues to be supported by fears of serious interruptions in oil supplies from Russia, which occupies one of the leading places in the world export of "black gold". In addition, investors were disappointed by the position of the participants in the OPEC+ deal, who, even in the current situation, did not change the monthly volumes of energy output to the market. At the last meeting of the alliance, producers agreed to increase production in April by 400K barrels per day. It is worth considering that of all the parties to the agreement, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reserve production capacities, the rest may not choose the quota they have, as, for example, is happening in Iraq. Therefore, it is hardly possible to increase the size of production at the present time, despite the pressure of exporters. In the current situation, the consumer countries participating in the International Energy Agency (IEA) have agreed to release part of the oil reserves in order to try to stop the price increase. It is assumed that 60M barrels of "black gold" will be brought to the market, of which 30M barrels are in the USA. Nevertheless, experts believe that these measures will not be able to significantly adjust prices, and the most effective means of rebalancing the market will be a natural decline in demand due to the high cost of energy resources.
Support and resistance
The nearest price growth targets may be 125.00 (Murray [+2/8]) and 133.50 (Fibo expansion of 100.0%). In case of a breakdown of 109.20 (Fibo expansion of 61.8%), a correction may begin to 100.00 (Murray [8/8]) and 95.50 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands). Technical indicators generally point out continued growth: the Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed upwards, the MACD histogram is growing in a positive zone. At the same time, the exit of the price beyond the upper Bollinger Band and the entry of Stochastic into the overbought zone do not exclude a short-term correction.
Resistance levels: 125.00, 133.50.
Support levels: 109.20, 100.00, 95.50.
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