The USD/CHF extended losses over the course of last week’s trading, firmly positioning price action beneath its 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0029. Providing sellers remain in the driving seat, the next support target does not come into view until the 2018 yearly opening level at 0.9744.
Daily perspective:
In conjunction with our weekly assessment, daily structure reveals price action ended the week closing within close proximity of resistance at 0.9986. The level, as you can see (yellow), boasts incredibly strong historical significance, and, therefore, will likely hold firm if tested this week. Downside from this angle seems reasonably free until a support area seen at 0.9866-0.9830 enters the fold.
H4 perspective:
Resurgent USD buying hit markets across the board Friday, pulling the H4 candles beyond resistance at 0.9949 (now acting support) towards an interesting area of resistance at 0.9999-0.9981. It may also interest some traders to note Friday’s move formed in the shape of an ABCD bearish pattern (black arrows), terminating just south of the noted resistance area at 0.9977 (127.2% Fibonacci ext. point).
While there are likely some traders already short the market from the resistance zone, there is an additional area of consideration seen overhead. The daily resistance seen plotted within the aforementioned H4 resistance area at 0.9986, along with a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point at 0.9995 and 1.0000 (parity) marks an attractive area for sellers today/early week.
Areas of consideration:
Should the unit continue to press for lower ground from current price, traders are urged to consider reducing risk to breakeven/liquidating partial profits at H4 support drawn from 0.9949.
For those who missed the initial short, as highlighted above, the pair still may explore higher ground and offer a lucrative region to sell from: 1.0000/0.9986. A short from here with stop-loss orders positioned above H4 supply marked with a red arrow at 1.0007-0.9988 is, according to the overall market picture, a high-probability selling opportunity.
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