USDINR: Breakout and retest done, 75.50 coming?

26 ott 2021

USDINR has broken out of the symmetrical triangle pattern formed on the weekly chart which I had discussed in my previous idea. After that it has done a retest of the pattern trendline and the 20EMA on the daily chart. If we observe a continuation bar forming, as explained on the chart, we could see a retest of 75.50 pretty soon.

Stay tuned for the continuation of the story..
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Manage risk properly and trade your plan.
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3 nov 2021

Nota

The bar dated 26.10.21 failed to close above the high of the previous bar, thus the pullback to the 20EMA has continued. A proper continuation bar has not yet formed.

Both USDINR as well as the dollar index DXY have pulled back to their 20EMA and are consolidating near that area.

We could see more volatility within the next couple of days as the Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for the 3rd and 4th. Cues from the announcements at that meeting is what the market is probably waiting for.

At the same time the market is going into an extended weekend close due to Diwali, so one would not be able to manage their positions from 5th to 7th. Take caution.

Will update when I see further developments.

11 nov 2021

Nota

Though the structure on the USDINR daily chart has turned slightly unfavorable for a long position, price has taken support right at the 200EMA and formed a nice continuation bar dated 10.11.21. The structure on the weekly chart still forming higher lows and also seems to be taking a support at the 20EMA.
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It should be noted that the structure on the daily DXY chart has remained bullish during this entire period and after pulling back to the 20EMA has given a large bullish bar on 10.11.21. This bar on the DXY closed at 94.86, breaking through the 94.50 resistance and has also closed above the 94.74 level which was the swing high of 25.09.20 and had not been broken since.
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A cautious long position could be initiated on USDINR with a smaller position size than usual only to be added as the situation develops. The levels to be considered are as follows:

LONG ABOVE: 74.41
STOP LOSS: 74.03 (Low of bar dated 10.11.21), or 73.81 (Low of bar dated 09.11.21 if you want to give more room)
TARGET 1: 74.79
TARGET 2: 75.17
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Will update as the situation develops.

26 nov 2021

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

Target 1 reached at 74.79, trailing stop loss to cost could be done for a risk free trade now.

30 nov 2021

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

Target 2 reached at 75.17, should reach 75.50 in a few days.

8 dic 2021

Nota

Final update : 75.50 reached.

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