USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog
Past week saw a gradual decline from its peak of 82.85. Now that the market would be happy to see 82.20 as safer level to hedge the Imports. Only a close below 81.70 favors further lower levels. At least for the moment, it appears that the pair seems to be in no mood to breach 81.70 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 82.10 and 83.10. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. Market is expecting 82.10-83.10 will be protected. Deeper correction is long overdue
The pair has a tendency to make surprise moves when most in the market do not expect.
A few more observations:
• Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation
• The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
• The currency pair seems to be trying to make one more attempt towards 83
• As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
o The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
o This range is continuing to be protected
o Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
The pair has a tendency to make surprise moves when most in the market do not expect.
A few more observations:
• Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation
• The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
• The currency pair seems to be trying to make one more attempt towards 83
• As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
o The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
o This range is continuing to be protected
o Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
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