medium term long on USDJPY with probability of further reversal

16 feb 2017

This is where I am at right now after a successful long and a missed short.

1. break from downward trend line
2. second trend line not confrimed yet, so it looks more like a consolidation.
3. fundamental bullish bias based on positive US' fundamentals, so i think i could bounce up,
although the proabbility of it going down is around 50% since it comes from a downward trend but it broke it and consolidation could resolve downwards.
4. It would have completed the 0.5 retracement.

17 feb 2017

Trade attivo

Took some profits Friday before market close, still have a short position hoping for the weekend to gap down since in the past 2 months, gaps tend to agree with the weeks trend. Since we come from a down-trend and we haven't hit Fibonacci targets, I'm taking the risk to stay short during the weekend in a small position.
Still hoping to hit 112.485 close short and take a short term long, hoping for more evidence of a bounce.

19 feb 2017

Nota

um.. keep finding reasons..

20 feb 2017

Nota

We failed to go lower so far, so uj seems to have its bottom, looking at this trade and thinking it's the beginning of our long.

21 feb 2017

Nota

Beautiful break. Couldn't have hoped for something better.