The dollar exchange rate 2020. Forecasts for the long term.

11 giu 2020

Despite the negative forecasts of many experts, the outgoing year was very favorable for the Russian currency. The ruble strengthened its position against the US dollar by almost 11%. Even at the end of the year, there was no traditional fall. On the contrary, on Monday, December 30, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange dropped to 61.87, the euro exchange rate also cost less than 70.
In particular, thanks to a strict budget with the implementation of the budget rule, the country's external debt has become negative. The CBR rate maintains a real positive ruble yield of 2.75% -3.0%, which attracts international investors to the bond market.
The outflow of capital, although it continues, but a substantial part of it is the investment of domestic corporations abroad.
In this regard, the forecasts of experts for the next year are very different. Some believe that the ruble will be able to maintain its current position in 2020.
In general, the upcoming year for the world economy should develop positively against the backdrop of a trade agreement between the US and China, as well as a wave of easing monetary policy by leading central banks.
Many currencies have negative or zero real returns. Against this background, the ruble with its order in public finances and real positive profitability is able to spend the next year in relative calm within the range of 61.0-65.0 per dollar.