The Rand's journey to R29 against the US Dollar.
A Recall from our 31st December 2023 article when we anticipated a fall of the USD to R17.40:
"In April 2022, major institutions sold the Rand off when it was trading around R14.40 ~ R14.80 against the US Dollar. Price proceeded to print a steep rising channel, capping off close to R19.92 with a shooting star and a beautiful bearish engulfing candle that closed the first week of June 2023 below R18.70. Indication that Rand sellers that were sitting around the R19.30 level in April 2020 were still awake."
Looking at price action after June 2023, we saw a change of character in price by way of printing a lower-low and lower-high. Price proceeded to print another lower-low around R17.03 in September 2024.Reading the 2 weekly candles of that low in the last 2 weeks of September 2024, we can see:
1. A double bottom
2. Bullish engulfing pattern
3. Dragonfly Doji when combining the 2 candles.
This was a signal that buyers are in still much active in the game. Price proceeded higher since then, reaching highs of R19.22 in Jan 2025, testing and cleanly breaking the June 2024 weekly supply zone at R18.84.
Currently price seems to be in a correction from that break. We anticipate a retest of a zone between R17.82 and R18.30. If price finds & confirms support in this area, we can see the exchange rate moving above R19.92 to make new highs. Weekly RSI is cleanly in bullish territory and above the smoothing average.
Should this zone fail to produce buyers that take the exchange rate above R19.23, the rate could tumble to R16.20 and further down to R15.90.Taking into account where Gold Spot is sitting in comparison to the DXY, there are more probabilities of Gold prices catching a reversal and somewhat dragging the Rand's strength with, than there are possibilities of the DXY falling; however that is up to the market to decide. We cannot predict, we can only prepare.
Targets to the upside: (probable)
R20.25
R21.96
R30.28
R54.40 (far future)
Targets to the downside: (possible)
R17.20
R16.20
R15.90
Current sentiments: Bearish on the South African Rand unless the R17.82 - R18.30 zone fails as support and turns into resistance.
"In April 2022, major institutions sold the Rand off when it was trading around R14.40 ~ R14.80 against the US Dollar. Price proceeded to print a steep rising channel, capping off close to R19.92 with a shooting star and a beautiful bearish engulfing candle that closed the first week of June 2023 below R18.70. Indication that Rand sellers that were sitting around the R19.30 level in April 2020 were still awake."
Looking at price action after June 2023, we saw a change of character in price by way of printing a lower-low and lower-high. Price proceeded to print another lower-low around R17.03 in September 2024.Reading the 2 weekly candles of that low in the last 2 weeks of September 2024, we can see:
1. A double bottom
2. Bullish engulfing pattern
3. Dragonfly Doji when combining the 2 candles.
This was a signal that buyers are in still much active in the game. Price proceeded higher since then, reaching highs of R19.22 in Jan 2025, testing and cleanly breaking the June 2024 weekly supply zone at R18.84.
Currently price seems to be in a correction from that break. We anticipate a retest of a zone between R17.82 and R18.30. If price finds & confirms support in this area, we can see the exchange rate moving above R19.92 to make new highs. Weekly RSI is cleanly in bullish territory and above the smoothing average.
Should this zone fail to produce buyers that take the exchange rate above R19.23, the rate could tumble to R16.20 and further down to R15.90.Taking into account where Gold Spot is sitting in comparison to the DXY, there are more probabilities of Gold prices catching a reversal and somewhat dragging the Rand's strength with, than there are possibilities of the DXY falling; however that is up to the market to decide. We cannot predict, we can only prepare.
Targets to the upside: (probable)
R20.25
R21.96
R30.28
R54.40 (far future)
Targets to the downside: (possible)
R17.20
R16.20
R15.90
Current sentiments: Bearish on the South African Rand unless the R17.82 - R18.30 zone fails as support and turns into resistance.
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.