Up to around $63-65, down for a new low, First target is $42.

Short-term short, Long-Term VERY bullish. It appears we have just completed the c wave in a triangle, expecting a trust up to around $63-65 and then plummet to a first target of $42 (new low) within 30-60 days. Much lower could be expected...depending on wave structure. The reason is deflation.

Sorry about not having the correct degree of labeling. I can't figure out how to create circles. This chart still gives you an idea on my ideas.

Commento:

UPDATE....we are nearing the end of this bear market...although still could reach $13 to $20 for wave C. When complete, we would be starting wave 3 up for an all-time-high above $147....over time. UWTI was trading at ~$650 when oil was @ $110. It is now around $3. If you were to go long UWTI ETF now or near $2 or lower, you could set-it-and-forget-it for the next year or so and make 100-400 times your investment....for doing nothing. $10K x 300 = $3M. Just like with gold, I would expect an ending pattern...possibly an Ending Diagonal...to give a precise entry point....also a good entry for futures options and a quick trade.

Commento:

UPDATE: On closer inspection of a monthly chart, it appears the 4th wave of a lessor degree, a typical stopping point for this wave 2 correction, is in the $10 area (if you can believe that!!!). This surely would create global unrest...particularly since it costs more to extract the oil than this.

Commento:

UPDATE: It appears we may have a temporary bottom and have nearly completed 5 waves up. We could be heading for the $60 area before making a new low around $10 area. My wave labels in green are roughly accurate...maybe with the green 5 lower to around $10 to complete red C and what would be wave 2...wave 1 would have been at the all-time high of $147. This is a bear-market rally, although sizable and worth trading long. UWTI is trading at around $2.39 now and was trading at $38 when oil was near $60. A pullback (down) in 3 waves would be a good entry point....which should start soon. One other thing I may change, is the red B...it may have actually ended on 5-02-2011 @ $113.60...with a green a,b,c forming it...instead of just the green a. A first wave may have started on 5-09-2011 and ended a second wave where I have the red B. This would better support a $10 low....a previous 4th wave of a lesser degree. I have updated my chart on my site...since I can't make modifications here. Everyone is bearish oil...I am not...short-term that is. I notice talk/articles about "Can UWTI go to zero" etc. Talk like this is typical at extremes.

Commento:

UPDATE: We are at a very important juncture in oil...a three-wave pullback would imply a 3rd wave were about to start. Check out my website for a 15-minute chart. The previous low must hold. Remember, around $60 is the target...depending on wave structure.

Commento:

UPDATE: $60-69 is the area we are targeting for the 4th wave. This is around the 38.2/50% Fib level. This wave could take numerous forms, one being a Triangle that lasts a LONG time, where we are working on wave a, the first of 5. This is a bear-market rally.