WIF-USD: The third Elliott wave of Dogwifhat

17 mar

2024-03-17
On St. Patrick’s day this pair looks greener once again after the Bitcoin mood turned negative this weekend and erased about a third of WIF’s gains in prior weeks.
Since trading began in December, the pair experienced an Elliott triangle correction into the last week of February, when it finally took off in a clearly structured impulse wave that took it from about 28 cents to over $3.50 in about three weeks, establishing itself as one of the most profitable coins in that period.
This Elliott wave analysis shows that this advance is really only in the early stages, as the market has only completed the first two waves of its run. The first wave culminated in a peak at $2.48. After retracing in wave two, the third wave commenced with another peak, the current high, which looks like a subwave one, ended by the correction this weekend taking the pair down to pennies above the two dollar mark. Recovery is progress, it appears, having gone as high as the $2.75 region.
If all goes well, this third wave seems destined for green greatness. There are several confluences of Fibonacci levels that could be targets, reach as far as a one-hundred times return. More immediate, however, would be reaching a level of about 15 dollars in the next couple of weeks.

17 mar

Nota

Let’s review the history a little to assure ourselves that we are on the right track with our wave counts. Anyone can paint some numbers into a chart and think they assigned Elliott waves. Elliott waves need to verified by studying their components on lower time frames, or lower wave degrees. Elliot wave structures have the property of self-similarity, a topic that Benoit Mandelbrot wrote about a lot, although he didn’t believe in Elliott waves, I think.
So here is a more detailed picture of the first wave. Let me know whether it can be done better.

17 mar

Nota

Note that the end of wave one, and a possible correction, was forewarned by the observation of a diagonal, here the “ending diagonal” type, since it ended the trend. It is characterized by a high degree of overlap of the motive subwaves, in particular wave one and four.

17 mar

Nota

In this following larger view, we see all of WIF’s public trading on the CEXs.
Since this is the first major wave of public trading, I assigned it as Cycle wave one, which will be complete with finishing wave (5) of Intermediate degree (upper right corner), as well as Primary degree wave ((5)), which is indicated along the bottom.
I am assuming that Primary wave one, two, and three are buried in private trading before launch, because the public chart starts with a larger triangle correction, which typically exists primarily in fourth waves, the B-waves of other corrections. Therefore, I am assuming that Primary wave five started in February.

18 mar

Nota

WIF-USD has shown some remarkable resilience over the weekend defying the downturn of bitcoin and the other meme coins, to the extent of approaching the area of the market top this morning, above $3.20.
But caution is advised, because this can also be interpreted as a B-wave of a larger correction in Minor wave two, only to eventually dip down to the $2.00 area to make a new low.

18 mar

Nota

Correction as of 2024-03-18 20:11 UTC:

18 mar

Nota

Notice that the price action is strongly bound by the markets Fibonnaci trend lines, here highlighted in bold red.

18 mar

Nota

The fib levels here are 0.386 on the top, then 0.00 ( main channel trend line) and -0.272, which is an important retracement trend line and often a signal to exit the market after break of main trend line

WIF seems in no hurry to break below.

18 mar

Nota

With a solid correction under its belt, being at the bottom of the channel or even below, I believe the WIFUSD chart looks very strong right now, and if BTC holds up, it should continue its strong performance of the past few weeks. From a wave position, it is at beginning of a third wave in Minute, Minor, and Intermediate degrees, from the small to the large waves, an incredibly powerful position, a springboard that should take the price straight up to the 15 dollar range in a matter of a week or two.

19 mar

Nota

WIF did finally break the fib level, and undercut the -0.386 level too. It developed a full flat correction. Seems it could be done here, but that really depends on bitcoin.

19 mar

Nota

It looks like our dig with hat has survived this plunge.
If we go by the previous assumption of correction structure, it looks like this:


It looks like an expanded flat. However, I have two problems this. Firstly, the long leg down in wave c has only a three-wave structure. It should be a five. Secondly, the leg is too long for most standards. It extends almost twice the distance of wave a. Thirdly, I am not sure wave b has only three subwaves. I can find 5.

19 mar

Nota

Ok, that were three problems.
So, I think, I am going back to my very first assignment from before the correction got the better of this market, and assign the market top as the end of wave one in Minute degtree, ((1)). What was wave b is now the fifth wave of ((1)).

The correction is now a simple zigzag, abc, straight down. End of story. Welcome wave three of three of three.

24 mar

Nota

How is our doggie with hat doing?

Trading pace has slowed to a trickle in the $2.30 range for the reason of the price action having been squeezed into a converging triangle pattern.

But it seems action should pick up pretty soon, as BTC has finished its own final triangle in that now close to three-week irregular top correction.

A bullish wave has already emerged here, but it is just slow so far.

24 mar

Nota

So this has been a long, essentially sideways correction. Some people have expected a deep correction down into the mid one dollar range. But indeed either probably have the same effect. Price correction versus time stretching. The price correction was still around one third from the top, not to be laughed about.
We should expect a rather powerful move up very soon, I believe.

24 mar

Nota

Our dog is now up 25% or so since last night when the bitcoin correction ended, and about 35% since end of WIF correction.

25 mar

Nota

With bitcoin’s continuation in its path, dog with hat, is following.
We see completion of the first significant impulse, stopping just a penny short of three dollars.
Completion of a five-wave sequence demands a correction, and that’s what the dog is doing. It seems that we need to pickup the poop in another multi-wave horizontal wave structure, as the first wave past the initial retrace is a three-wave, and there is really not much we can do to make is impulsive.

25 mar

Nota

There is a possibility, however, to assign a different wave labelling to this run out of the triangle. That would make the current peak the apex of only a third wave of lower degree, rather than the one in the chart. That would make it highly likely that indeed we are seeing the beginnings of a triangle correction here. These occur primarily in fourth waves.

We shall figure out which it should be.

26 mar

Nota

If you haven’t paid attention, our doggie with a hat is warming up for the high-jumping competition. It ran for over a dollar in the last couple of days, and will be off the leash in 20 cents or so, with a new ATH past 3.52.
Who knows how far he’ll run without breaks.
My target area looks to be around $15, but not in a single shot.

27 mar

Nota

The top of the market ended up looking quite different than in that last chart. It was a complex and choppy sequence, of two embedded (1-2, 1-2, 3-4, 3-4) fives, ending just under the ATH that was formed just in March. The market got as high as 3.451 so far by the data from Crypto.com, where the ATH is 3.557. We need BTC for more energy to make the jump across.

28 mar

Nota

Dog finallly got the energy to make that jump across the fence. Out in the open it can run now. $3.87. Targets appear to be the major Fibonnaci levels, 1.000 and 1.618, until further developments.

28 mar

Nota

Please ignore wave labels in correction. Some need to be scratched,… experimental alternatives I should have cleaned up.

29 mar

Nota

Here is the analysis of this nice advance of WIFUSD today, which made it past the 4 dollar mark for a new ATH.

This wave is a picture perfect example of the Elliott Wave Principle. Textbook❣️

The wave is nit finished. I am not sure yet that the end of wave four in Subminuette degree, iv, is in yet. And then we still need to wait for wave five, v, to a new ATH (green arrow up).



Note that the wave is extended. It has two 1-2 sequences at the start, in Subminuette and Micro degrees. Therefore it ran for a large multiple in Subminuette iii, to the exact 4.236 Fib extension of wave one. This Fib level is very common, along with 2.618 and 1.618. These three are the primary levels used in three-point Fib extension analysis. Note the significance of 1.618 here as well.

So, after completion of wave five, we should expect yet more correction, as indicated by the red down arrow. So this price range is where our doggie is going to hang out for a bit longer for a pit stop.

29 mar

Nota

I think that wave iv is done. It ended up going very deep.

29 mar

Nota

The wave went down to about 3.50. It sure feels like this is a retrace after a fifth wave. I see a possibility to renumber and count the feature at the 1.618 level as the third and fourth wave, so that the top is actually wave five already. This doesn’t fit my picture of an extended wave, but it seems entirely valid.

29 mar

Nota

Here is the chart for this assignment. It looks pretty good. We have to see whether the market agrees, because if this is correct we should expect the market to move way past the existing high point now in wave (iii) of ((iii)) of (3).

29 mar

Nota

A large move to the upside now also may be supported by Bitcoin which seems to have finally bottomed in its 1-2 sequence for another rise up. Not much happens for long without this support.
BTW, the WIF chart is also strongly supported by the daily pivot point levels. Keep an eye on them, the provide strong support and resistance.

29 mar

Nota

One troubling aspect about this assignment is that the first wave up after the low appears to be consisting of only three subwaves, while a bullish scenario calls for five. Could this just be an ABC for continuation of the correction? On the one-minute chart is looks a little better though.

29 mar

Nota

The chart of WIF paid in bitcoins, WIF-BTC, looks equally impressive, showing amplification over BTC.

29 mar

Nota

WIF has been pushing the ATH up. 4.21

Here in uncharted price discovery, the daily pivot points are a good benchmark.
The dog came to a stop at R2 so far. If it can make it past that, $4.60 is next.

29 mar

Nota

WIF is pushing hard against the R2 level.
A break past the line will likely be very energetic. This coin is hot right now, and the crypto media are buzzing about its run.
Failure will likely trigger a retest of the low level, R1 at 3.95.

30 mar

Nota

WIF did not have enough to make the barrier on first try, and as suggested, withdrew to the previous pivot point resistance, R1, to form wave four and start a new wave sequence which was able pass to the 4.35 mark, for a small pullback, and onward to currently about 4.50, still advancing. Yesterdays target of 4.60 is noe obsolete as a new day has started and we have new pivots.

30 mar

Nota

The new R3 level is actual only two pennies off the old one, and the market is there now.

The chart is a beauty to watch.

30 mar

Nota

Right here is also resistance from a Fib channel trendline, visible in the chart by the slanted line. Should be interesting to see what doggie is going to do here.

30 mar

Nota

Price is holding well at this important level. Trying a break through.

I should point out that my pivot point levels are the Fibonacci type, but the tool only calculates three R, so above this I have to use traditional levels, if any.

30 mar

Nota

The Fibonacci R3 is identical to the traditional R2, as the multiplier is 1.000 there.

WIF is forming a stable structure here at this level in what appears to be an Elliott triangle correction, or possibly a double 3-4 sequence related to two unassigned waves earlier. We have to see what materializes. In any case this suggests that the rally is going to continue when this is finished.
New ATH is 4.64 at this point.

31 mar

Nota

Doggie got some rest and now is out hunting, chasing Easter bunnies.
New ATH. 4.75+

2 apr

Nota

Got to a new ATH above 4.80, but pulled back to four bucks in BTC’s pull back.
But it coincided with hitting end of fifth waves, so a deep retrace is perfectly warranted. It sets the stage for a major new move up.
The waves are tough, could not keep up with market, but long straight runs are often difficult.
Since it’s in correction, perhaps I’ll catch up with fresh ideas, probably from scratch with empty chart.

2 apr

Nota

Here is a fresh look at the run from the last correction that ended around $2.11.
As the chart shows this was a run in a single trend channel, but it may be divided in two segments of almost equal size. The second was just a little taller, by about eleven cents. That is just about the only distinction, other than exact internal price action. But even the internal structures are extremely similar, given by a well developed five-wave impulse in each. Both were corrected in a simple and straight -line decline, but the second retrace is also somewhat larger, having even broken the primary trend line support of the coin.
If these two segments were the first and third wave of a larger degree wave, I would expect a more complex or slower correction, such as a triangle for the second, according to Elliott’s principle of alternation. But not so. The size relationship is ok for this though, because a third wave cannot be the shortest, and that is assured now, no matter how large the fifth wave might be in the future. However, in such a strong bull market as this coin exhibits, I would expect the third wave to be MUCH longer than the first, namely by a ratio of 1.618 or even 2.618.
The only explanation I have right now is that these two waves are actually both a 1-2 sequence, and this is the way I have labeled them in the chart for now. This creates the expectation that this wave will be extended with a very long third wave of at least 261.8 or 423.6 percent extension. We shall see what the near future brings.
I am not sure that the correction is actually finished. No pain..no gain.

3 apr

Nota

Strong uptrend alert!

The WIF market corrected in a straight ABC correction to about 3.60, or by about a quarter of its price.
Now it’s time for doggie to run again, and based on the start it should be a swift recovery. The first wave indicates that its third wave should print a new ATH in the range of at least 4.95 to 5.15, someday today still, if bitcoin can sustain its own recovery.

3 apr

Nota

Well, swift it has not been. From a stiff first posture, the market managed to retest the bottom once more, to within four pennies. But that should be good for now.
I would bet this pullback is fairly heavily bought, as this coin gets more exposure now, and apparently, more whales’ attention.
I have read reports which claim it capable of becoming the largest meme coin this year, surpassing Shib and doge. I think I can support that with a wave model that seems totally within reach. Let it get out of this hole first.

3 apr

Nota

The last notable upswing was a three-wave it turns out. So this market may get even closer than four cents to the bottom…

6 apr

Nota

BTC is moving and so is dog wif hat.
Pullback was about 1/3 of price.

7 apr

Nota

The wave structures of the completed correction now reveal some interesting aspects.
It is now clear that the ramp up before the down trend was actually a corrective wave!
In a previous chart, the one before the last, I labeled two almost equal sections of this run up, and I was not sure how to properly label it. It now becomes clear that it was a B-type wave, producing an irregular top, before the final wave down of a very large correction in wave (2).
So, the third wave of WIF that is the topic of this entire thread has actually just started.

7 apr

Nota

This is the new picture that emerges.

7 apr

Nota

So here we observe that the entire wave (2) coincides with bitcoin’s correction period that started on 3/14. WIF’s correction looks almost horizontal in a general sense, with an abc zigzag run up in wave X, which is the equivalent of a B-wave. B waves a sucker waves, or bull traps, and this is exactly what happened here. It seemed to be a very strong bullish move, only to give way to the deep retrace by 1/3 right after.
But overall the almost horizontal nature and the strong B wave performance against Bitcoin’s correction supports a very bullish sentiment in dogwifhat.
I expect a 10x run up in the coming weeks. More seems possible, if the meme spirit stays healthy and alive.

8 apr

Nota

Bitcoin has ignition, and dog is keeping up, having regained the four dollar level.

8 apr

Nota

WIF has recovered more than 65% of the final leg of its correction and appears poised for more. It is encountering resistance right in the golden pocket between 61.8 % and 65 %.

8 apr

Nota

I think this is the wave count for the beginnings of this third wave.

Wave three is in Intermediate degree, per my relative scheme. So the bottom of the chart indicates Intermediate wave (2). Since that point, waves one and two in Minor degree, 1 and 2, have completed. In Minor wave 3, Minute degree waves one and two are complete, ((1)) and ((2)). The market should now embark in Minute ((3)) for a powerful run to a new ATH, beyond five dollars, likely.