GOLD 16 HOUR TREND #4 su FX_IDC:XAUUSD di Binary_Forecasting_Service

GOLD 16 HOUR TREND #4

Intro - For what it's worth, this is what trend suggest for next 16 hours.

Warning - If price leave boxes, then stop using it!

Details - None, use at your own risk.

Nota

BTW - To be clear, this is the favorite route for price at this time. It may change at any time.

Nota

2:30 PM ET, IF THIS HITS TOMORROW, WHAT IT WILL MEAN:
1) price is at a unique spot to go to 1840 in a short time
2) how fast?
3) about 11 days, so on or before Sunday 2/25
4) what does that mean for us?
5) no idea ,but you can probably consider the bull market dead this time tomorrow
6) why not today?
7) the miracle reversal window has not closed
8) and until it does, it's not over
9) but it will close soon, as early as tomorrow

Nota

6:36 PM ET SO HERE'S THE SHIFT:

Nota

a) in chart above the, the left side is basically what happened in post #3
b) where "odds favor staircase down" but...
c) price swung up hard and crashed in the morning
d) we again have a similar situation
e) odds still favor a staircase down RIGHT THIS SECOND
f) but that's why I have the boxes
g) if price swings up the same way...
h) the result should be the same "type of move"
i) but not necessarily as sharp and as fast

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j) the decision window for "staircase down" or "spike and crash"' is ...
k) between 11 PM tonight (it's 6:45 now) and 3 AM tomorrow

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2/14 10:57 PM ET, 1990.66, HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY AND SOME BAD NEWS FOR BULLS:
1) I think I just proved we're going to 1650 this July
2) to start off with though, the picture for Thurs and Fri is like this:
a) so 8:30 AM Thursday is Initial Claims
b) and 8:30 AM Friday is PPI
3) bulls are running out of time to do something
4) at the same time, the floor has been slowly dropping
5) it's inching under 1950 for tomorrow and 1942 for Friday
6) this does not mean we cannot bounce
7) it just means PRICE IS LIKELY TO FLOOR FIRST
8) the failure to have sustained break above 94 implies we move to 1955-1960 first
9) after which a dead cat bounce will reverse to the floor Thursday PM under 1950
10) this will shut the door for any medium term comeback
11) the response to PPI will determine how deep/fast price gets before 3/20 FOMC
12) earlier today it looks like 1840 can hit in February...
13) this maybe too bearish
14) but what is knowable now is price IS STRONGLY FAVORED FOR 1870 by 3/08
15) and this means 1830-40 by 3/15
16) this overall pattern IS A TARGET FOR 1650 IN JULY
17) thats it

Nota

18) but I really think it's MAY, weird AF I know

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11:33 PM ET: SO HERE'S WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE NOW:

Nota

a) in chart above: there are several routes
b) very light blue is original route in chart at top
c) it has been wrong since the beginning (we know that)
d) light gray was above is modified bull route that never happened
e) this was in 2 charts above
f) lighter blue is modified bear route in previous chart
g) finally dark blue is what it looks now

Nota

h) so it's going to miss all the boxes
i) but overall shape of route is same
j) I've said this I don't how many times
k) but forecasting accuracy is only a factor OF UPDATE FREQUENCY
l) so accurate means updated, that's all that it is

Nota

8:53 AM 2002.XX here was the shift at 3AM:

Nota

a) in notes above I mentioned that the "window for gray route would expire at 3AM"
b) I also said later that expiration has shifted closer to midnight
c) so at 11:33 PM last chart posted, the odds favored blue route over gray route
d) at exactly 3 AM price swung back to gray route
e) so what does that mean?

Nota

f) obviously bulls want to test 2009-2012
g) the the buy at the drop shows this is likely:

Nota

a) in chart above, bulls are trying to keep their miracle reversal window open
b) at least until after NY OPEN
c) what miracle window?

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d) this one in notes from last night:

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e) so what do we know?
f) first bulls took the "LAST SECOND ROUTE" literally moving at 3AM
g) so odds of making 2009-2012 lower than yesterday's extrapolation
h) odds of setting up miracle reversal even lower
i) but not zero
j) the fact that it is 2002 steady after the morning check down says...
k) bulls will try again after the NY OPEN here in 20 min (it's 9:10 as I type)
l) but again, odds favor bulls failing
m) gray move has steady fall to to 1980s (or lower) by afternoon)

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n) that''s a wrap
o) have a good weekend

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11:00 AM, SOME NOTES FOR SPECIFIC READERS:

Nota

a) for chart above: last night I commented on the floor for Thursday and Friday
b) at 2052-ish and 2044-ish respectively
c) THAT IS STILL TRUE
d) but knowing whether or not price makes it there, THU-FRI-SUN-MON-TUE...
e) is again, based on how often you update

Nota

f) I actually really enjoyed the process of figuring this out
g) but the ongoing execution of it can only be continuously accomplished by hardware/software
h) I have known for sometime that this would not sell well to developers
i) so I was looking for a bull market to pay for it myself
j) this bull market is not coming
k) despite holding out until last week, it is undeniable now
l) so have a good one
m) and thanks for reading my work
n) I really hope I didn't waste your time and money, that was never the intention
o) good luck with everything and hope you crush all your trades!

Nota

p) if you insist on a bull market, all I can say is this:
q) if we hit 1940-1950 any time from now to Tuesday...
r) this would trap gold in a spiral going down
s) the 1650 in July would be the obvious and conservative estimate
t) the shocker would getting there in before June 1st

Trade chiuso manualmente

u) that's a total wrap for this post and project.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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