gold continues to retest support / scenario and strategy

2 lug

XAUUSD
Current Situation:

- Gold prices are trading around the 2323.360 level
- The price is facing resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (2326.500) and is currently below a descending trend line, indicating short-term bearish pressure.

Key Levels to watch

- Resistance:
- 2326.500 (38.2% Fibonacci level)
- 2329.000 (50.0% Fibonacci level)
- 2331.500 (61.8% Fibonacci level)
- 2334.000 (strong resistance zone)
- Support:
- 2313.475 (recent low and significant support zone)

Most Likely Scenario

Given the current market conditions and technical setup, the most likely scenario is continued bearish pressure with a potential retest of the support zone around 2313.475. This scenario assumes that the price will struggle to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (2326.500) and the descending trend line.

Trading Strategy


Short Position (Most Likely Scenario)
Entry:
- Enter a short position if the price fails to break above 2326.500 (38.2% Fibonacci level) and shows signs of rejection at this level.
- or, enter a short position if the price breaks below 2318.000, confirming continued bearish momentum.
Stop Loss:
- Place a stop loss above the 2329.000 level to manage risk, ensuring it's above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take Profit:
- First target: Around 2313.475 (support zone).
- Second target: If the price breaks below 2313.475, look for further downside potential, targeting levels such as 2306.000.

Long Position (less likely Scenario)

Entry:
- Enter a long position if the price breaks and closes above 2326.500 (38.2% Fibonacci level) and sustains above this level.
Stop Loss:
- Place a stop loss below 2318.000 to manage risk.
Take Profit:
- First target: Around 2329.000 (50.0% Fibonacci level).
- Second target: Around 2331.500 (61.8% Fibonacci level) if bullish momentum continues.

Summary
- Most Likely Scenario: Continued bearish pressure with a potential retest of the support zone around 2313.475.
- Trading Strategy: Favor short positions with entries near 2326.500 and stops above 2329.000, targeting 2313.475 and lower levels. Consider long positions only if there is a clear break above 2326.500 with sustained momentum.