It's been an incredible past year in Gold, with the metal up more than 41% from last October's lows. At that point XAU/USD had started to show 'deep oversold' conditions on the daily chart, with RSI pushing below the 20-level. Since then, however, a far different tone has showed and perhaps most impressive is the fact that pullbacks over the past year have largely been shallow.
There was a massive breakout in March and, normally, that would be followed by profit taking, to some degree. Instead, a mean-reverting range appeared with an upward-sloping bias. Slowly, bulls gained acceptance of $2300, and then $2400; and, eventually prodding a test of $2500 in August.
Again after a run of that magnitude one might expect a larger pullback as profit taking took place. But, that didn't really happen here as Gold spent most of the time after that initial $2500 break in a solid range. For the past week though, bulls have been back in-charge, as shown by an upward-sloping trendline that eventually led to this morning's breakout.
At this point, prior range resistance is now support potential, spanning from around 2527-2531. - js
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