Gold outlook 27/9/24

27 set

1. Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch %K and %D)

• The Stoch %K is at 100 and %D is at 97.23, indicating that the market is in an overbought condition. This means that the price has potentially risen too quickly, and a reversal (or at least a pullback) could be on the horizon.
• This aligns with the idea that a selling opportunity might be more favorable at this point, especially since the market may experience a correction soon.

2. RSI and ATR RSI

• The RSI is at 87.18, which is extremely high and further supports the notion that the market is overbought.
• The ATR RSI at 50.41 is a moderate reading, suggesting the current price is volatile but manageable for setting stop losses.
• Given the overbought conditions on both the Stochastic and RSI, this would be a good point to consider a short position (sell) with a tight stop loss around the recent high.

3. TP & SL (Take Profit and Stop Loss) Levels

• The chart shows several Fibonacci levels and take profit targets:
• Take Profit 5 is at 2672.41.
• Take Profit 4 is at 2671.08.
• Take Profit 3 is at 2669.76, and so on.
• These levels give a clear path for taking profits in a stepwise manner if you were to go short now. For example, you might aim to gradually take profits as the price descends through each level.

4. DynaPVT and Chikou Span

• The DynaPVT (Pivot) is at 2669.48, close to the current price. This suggests that this level could act as short-term resistance.
• The Chikou Span is aligned with the current price at 2666.72, which indicates that the price might move sideways before making a decisive move either up or down.

5. Volume and Cashflow

• Volume MA is increasing, indicating a lot of market activity, which means the current price action could be very volatile.
• Cashflow is high at 455,055, and Signal is very close at 454,124, suggesting a balanced market with some potential buying power.

Strategy and Recommendations:

• For a Short Position (Sell):
• The overbought RSI and Stochastic suggest a good short opportunity.
• Place a stop loss slightly above 2672-2673, as this is near the upper resistance levels.
• Aim to take profits at the Fibonacci levels: First target around 2667, then 2665, and finally 2655-2650.
• For a Long Position (Buy):
• If you believe the price will continue to rise, you can wait for a retracement back to the Scalping: Fib 61.8% level at 2667.92 or lower.
• Set your stop loss around 2660 to protect from downside risks.
• Target higher levels such as 2672 or 2675 for profits.

Conclusion:

In light of the upcoming U.S. data, if the economic data comes out stronger than expected, it will likely push the U.S. dollar higher and pressure gold, making the short (sell) position more favorable. If the data is weaker, gold may rise, and a buy position would be more appropriate, but with caution given the overbought conditions.