XAUUSD MONTHLY ANALYSIS

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What to look out for this week?

Gold is been trading in a range between 2062.21 - 1992.74 for more than 3 months now. A breakout on either side of the range will be very spectacular.

BEARISH SCENARIO
- For a bearish scenario to occur (break below the range) we can ask and consider the following:
1. Was the top wick created in December 2023 a liquidity to drive down?
2. The February monthly candle has less than 16 days to close, if it closes below the 1992 resistance-turned-support level, a drive down can be expected.

BULLISH SCENARIO
- For a bullish scenario to occur (break above the range) two things need to happen:
1. The monthly candle needs to flip.
2. The monthly candle must close respecting the 1992.74 level. Then we can count on the next monthly candle to drive up.

With the way US macro data is coming in hot, I think bearish scenario is more likely. Unless...

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Nota
1992.12 level tapped. Will it hold as support or will it break? Stay tuned
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