Well done to those who joined us at 1249.2!

Weekly gain/loss: + $27.3
Weekly closing price: 1255.3

As can be seen from the weekly chart, the yellow metal aggressively recovered from demand at 1194.8-1229.1 during last week’s segment. The move broke a four-week bearish phase, and could potentially drag this market back up to the two weekly Fibonacci extensions 161.8/127.2% at 1313.7/1285.2 taken from the low 1188.1 (green zone) sometime this week.

Before the bulls can form an extension, nevertheless, offers placed around the daily resistance area drawn from 1265.2-1252.1 will need to be consumed. A decisive (daily) close beyond this zone would likely confirm further buying up to not only the 1313.7/1285.2 area seen on the weekly chart, but also quite possibly the daily Quasimodo resistance level seen at 1307.8.

For those who read Friday’s report you might remember our desk initiating a long position from 1249.2 with a stop set at 1244.9. Our rationale behind this trade was due to H4 price chalking up a reasonably sized H4 bull candle off of March/April’s opening levels at 1245.9/1248.0, which happened to merge beautifully with a H4 trendline support etched from the high 1278.0. Yes, it was a slightly risky bet given where daily price was positioned, but knowing that we had weekly bulls behind the market, we were fairly happy with our decision.

As you can see, price spent the day rallying north following our entry. Bullion is seen within striking distance of our initial take-profit target set at the H4 trendline resistance (1258.0) taken from the high 1295.4, and our stop is at breakeven. In the event that price continues to rally and surpasses the H4 trendline, we’ll be looking to liquidate the remainder of our position around the H4 61.8% Fib resistance at 1264.5 (green line) extended from the high 1295.4 seen planted within H4 supply at 1268.3-1262.7.

Our suggestions: As for potential setups going forward, we see a possible rejection being seen from the aforementioned H4 supply taking place. But given weekly flow at the moment, there’s a chance that this area may suffer a break and price may look to challenge May’s opening level at 1270.5, and perhaps beyond. Therefore, trade with caution here guys!

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1249.2 (live, stop loss: breakeven).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

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