Gold is performing badly under the circumstances (Inflation)

Gold's general commentary: Gold manages to keep the levels below #1,803.80 (one of MA’s on Daily chart) despite the stabilization on Bond Yields market and very sharp uptrend in continuation on DX, as both DX and the Bond Yields Buying festival provide decent Resistance on Gold and messenger which adds confidence to Gold's Sellers. Especially the fact that the Bond Yields broken the Lower Resistance (Bullish Gap fill) on Daily chart’s Ascending Channel (which is a good sign for Gold’s Sellers aswel), makes Gold switch from Bullish to Bearish on the Short-term, with it's own Hourly 1 chart having regained complete Bearish status for the first time since January #10. As soon as the new market dynamics, post Fed, find their prior balance, Gold can resume its steady Medium-term downtrend.


Technical analysis: Gold has broken the Lower High’s zone on Daily chart currently and turned marginally Bearish on Technical part, same Price-action and developments spotted on November #18 - November #23 sequence. Even though the Daily chart’s Support is seen Trading on #1,788.80 extension which Technically should be tested throughout today’s session (Three Black Crows forming), the outlook doesn't look favourable for Gold on the Medium-term (remember the importance of ex Triple Top line, which when broken continues the sequence on more than #50 points). Traders are witnessing one of the strongest Technical Bearish oscillation which is called Death Cross (fuelled aswell by Fed aftermath). Even though Gold is showing Bullish reversal signs (Oversold levels), Death Cross is invalidating all those spots and should emerge new Bearish Multi-Year cycle (which I have estimated that will occur and announced it through my commentaries). Keep in mind that Death Cross not only that it denies Technical, it also invalidate the Fundamental part and should push Gold to #1,788.80 first then #1,778.80 in continuation. The Daily chart’s #MA50 is widely broken and Gold is Trading comfortably below it (which was holding from January #11 Buying spree). As Gold is cyclical asset and one should pay attention to historic resemblance, Gold has made a similar full scale upswing in #2003 Year when it broke aggressively (above the #340 Weekly Resistance) into the #2003 - #2013 Bull Cycle. I see many similarities on #2019 Bullish cycle (Price-action broken above the Weekly (#1W) chart’s #1,450.80 Strong Resistance into the 2019 - Bull Cycle). As Gold is relatively Low under the current circumstances, I am expecting Bearish cycle ahead as Gold tends to struggle after Pricing the ATH’s.


Technical analysis / phase #2: Keep in mind that Gold is still on Descending Channel on (#1W) Weekly chart and every peak / rejection near the Upper line of Descending Channel will pressure for Lower Low’s test. DX broke to a new #1-Year High’s and sole development should progressively add extra Selling pressure on the already Bearish trend on Gold. As expected Hourly 4 chart continues to Trade sideways in an effort to harmonize the previously largely Overbought mechanics as the Price-action was rejected 3 times near Higher High’s, and every rejection was distinguished as an Selling opportunity. For now on my algorithm, chances for #1,766.80 test has #92.78% probability and my estimation is early February. Fed statements confirmed my last Year projection that rate will remain unchanged and that Traders will witness more and more hawkish stances on the Fed’s speeches. Daily chart caught my attention where September #30 trendline is about to be invalidated, and if that is the case, I am expecting #1,766.80 test and #1,727.80 Lower Low’s configuration on the cards.


Mathematical explanation why Gold is not performing as it should according to the circumstances (Inflation rising on Daily basis, Highest rate from #1982 Year):
If a Trader Bought physical Gold in #2011 - #2012 cycle, mathematically, Price of Gold should be near #2,220.80 per ounce currently (fair approximate) / this Year (#2022) to follow / keep up the trend of ever-growing Inflation (however, Gold is struggling and Trading below #1,800.80 per ounce and is about to continue the decline, even on Medium-term level). If you count those #2 numbers (#1,800.80 - #2,220.80), you'll get that if you Bought physical Gold back in #2011 - #2012 cycle, you'll be down around (# -20% to # -22%) on your Investment which is not very Profitable. This simple calculation points out (what I have been mentioning since early last Year's fractal), that Gold is not performing as expected (safe-haven role), yes, it soared strongly towards local peak's, but nothing significant, and that's why I am expecting values of #1,600.80 or below until end of #2022, as Investors lost confidence in Gold as an sole hedge asset against inflation.


My position: If Daily chart's trendline breaks and Gold breaks #1,788.80 on one hit, I will engage my order pursuing #1,766.80 Support with my Selling order. However, since it is end of the Trading week (Friday's session) and I am Highly satisfied with my Trading results, I might comfortably observe the Price-action from sidelines and take an early weekend break.