Ideal scenario for BTC right now imo
Global markecap only just dipped below 250bil. The level of panic I saw and partially felt, specially over the weekend, now feels way out of proportion.
BTC dominance been going up since start of May but the clear BTC - alt correlation remains. Assuming the correlation is still there and assuming this was at least a temporary bottom, I think a lot of altcoins are really juicy for a little flip but BTC accumulation is still my primary goal.
Starting on the weekly, it really doesn’t look bad. I mean, more than a full retrace of April gains and taking out Feb low isn’t fantastic… BUT (heres the hopium), the weekly ended up closing above Feb lows and looking at the weekly RSI, it has been chopping around 50 (I could be very wrong on this but doesn’t RSI chop around 50 imply consolidation?)
More hopium on the daily, I believe the Sunday dip was a 6k SFP, liquidity pool dip, stop hunt, whatever you want to call it. Some decent volume on the bounce back a very nice, long lower wick and bull div on the extreme side of RSI. Not bad.
1H is a bit mixed. A nice volume bar on yesterdays pump and a low volume consolidation but 6160 is proving to be tougher to break. That being said, we're still in the range I drew for myself on Saturday so that’s encouraging.
What I would love to see play out but doubt it will: slow consolidation in low 6xxx and then slowly working our way up. That being said, this would be a perfect scenario imo, both for alts and btc but perfect rarely happens so I wouldn’t count on it. A slow rise like that would give alts more than enough time to establish some decent support and start pumping. Again though, this is hopeful thinking.
My only current position is 5820 long September futures. Don’t have a clear plan for this one yet. Got stops but im considering riding them out until September. If we climb just hedge short spot near resistances but still nothing concrete for now.
As I said at the start, alts are dumped heavily, the weekend dip wasn’t that bad (in hindsight) and the correlation between alts and btc is still very strong. Im most likely going to be playing mostly alts on this bounce but because this market mugged me off too many times, im gonna use really, really tight stops on this and move slowly, rather buy after a breakout as it comes down and tests a solid support rather than try to bet on a break out.
Interesting to see how London open in an hour is gonna react to what happened over the weekend.
Because my post was overly bullish, heres some bear hopium: this gent has been writing abou Cartel price surpression since the CBOE and CME futures came out and hes been on point so far. hes calling the bottom at 95% from 20k so around 1k. blog.goodaudience.com/cartel-strike-3-bitcoin-drops-10k-to-8k-next-stop-15k-or-5k-4b9d697e5675
TLDR: VERY cautiously bullish, still in a bear market so very tight stops and only looking for small - medium flips. Hopefully we slowly consolidate and start climbing with a bit of volume but im not expecting crazy parabolic growth until the ETF is 100% confirmed.
Good luck
BTC dominance been going up since start of May but the clear BTC - alt correlation remains. Assuming the correlation is still there and assuming this was at least a temporary bottom, I think a lot of altcoins are really juicy for a little flip but BTC accumulation is still my primary goal.
Starting on the weekly, it really doesn’t look bad. I mean, more than a full retrace of April gains and taking out Feb low isn’t fantastic… BUT (heres the hopium), the weekly ended up closing above Feb lows and looking at the weekly RSI, it has been chopping around 50 (I could be very wrong on this but doesn’t RSI chop around 50 imply consolidation?)
More hopium on the daily, I believe the Sunday dip was a 6k SFP, liquidity pool dip, stop hunt, whatever you want to call it. Some decent volume on the bounce back a very nice, long lower wick and bull div on the extreme side of RSI. Not bad.
1H is a bit mixed. A nice volume bar on yesterdays pump and a low volume consolidation but 6160 is proving to be tougher to break. That being said, we're still in the range I drew for myself on Saturday so that’s encouraging.
What I would love to see play out but doubt it will: slow consolidation in low 6xxx and then slowly working our way up. That being said, this would be a perfect scenario imo, both for alts and btc but perfect rarely happens so I wouldn’t count on it. A slow rise like that would give alts more than enough time to establish some decent support and start pumping. Again though, this is hopeful thinking.
My only current position is 5820 long September futures. Don’t have a clear plan for this one yet. Got stops but im considering riding them out until September. If we climb just hedge short spot near resistances but still nothing concrete for now.
As I said at the start, alts are dumped heavily, the weekend dip wasn’t that bad (in hindsight) and the correlation between alts and btc is still very strong. Im most likely going to be playing mostly alts on this bounce but because this market mugged me off too many times, im gonna use really, really tight stops on this and move slowly, rather buy after a breakout as it comes down and tests a solid support rather than try to bet on a break out.
Interesting to see how London open in an hour is gonna react to what happened over the weekend.
Because my post was overly bullish, heres some bear hopium: this gent has been writing abou Cartel price surpression since the CBOE and CME futures came out and hes been on point so far. hes calling the bottom at 95% from 20k so around 1k. blog.goodaudience.com/cartel-strike-3-bitcoin-drops-10k-to-8k-next-stop-15k-or-5k-4b9d697e5675
TLDR: VERY cautiously bullish, still in a bear market so very tight stops and only looking for small - medium flips. Hopefully we slowly consolidate and start climbing with a bit of volume but im not expecting crazy parabolic growth until the ETF is 100% confirmed.
Good luck
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