Is the next Major Retail Trend Down?

The retail apocalypse is among us with more than 3500 brick and mortar retail stores closing with-in the 2017 timeframe. Major retailers across the country are suffering from a consumer shifting to e-commerce, and financially weak consumer.

SPDR SPX500 US Retail ETF <XRT> on a monthly timeframe has consistently produced lower highs since 1Q15. Overall structure post 2H13 appears to print a head and shoulders formation alluding to much resistance in the 38-50 handles. The pattern may allude to a trend change where we believe could unlock overhead supply if 41 handle’s floor is blown out. This would suggest a Fib-migration to 34 handle or -15% bear market. From the lows of 2009 to the highs of 2015, we use an 8×1 and 5×1 GANN on both high and low points to produce an overall symmetrical triangle.