BIST 100 - Good Scenario
I'm not bullish on BIST 100 index, and I was expecting 90K first but it seems the current structure wants something else.
This is my best-case scenario. It breaks current resistance, hits 106K first, then starts its journey around 90K to form a huge inverse H&S. This might be the only viable option for BIST to go for new highs. TRY assets are all fundamentally weak right now, thus nobody should expect mega rallies on TRY currency pairs or stock exchanges.
My scenario is, we see a new rally on USDTRY when TCMB (Turkish central bank) lowers the interest rates due to the political pressure, at the end of this month. Before this, BIST will do its best to go 106K zone as quickly as possible, afterward its journey downwards to form the right shoulder should begin.
The daily chart shows divergences and the price can even stop here at its current level, but the weekly chart is bullish so I think we should see 106K to satisfy the weekly chart.
The current strength is due to the relief of US sanctions, or rather lack of US sanctions. The US only has restricted Turkey to access F35 program so it seems there will be no economic sanctions, which did fuel the rally of BIST nowadays. Still, this effect cannot last for long, especially when you expect a mega dovish TCMB stand this month.
Above you see the current contraction zone, RSI divergence and how EMAs pushing the price level higher while the current main trendline resistance trying to block the prices.
This is my best-case scenario. It breaks current resistance, hits 106K first, then starts its journey around 90K to form a huge inverse H&S. This might be the only viable option for BIST to go for new highs. TRY assets are all fundamentally weak right now, thus nobody should expect mega rallies on TRY currency pairs or stock exchanges.
My scenario is, we see a new rally on USDTRY when TCMB (Turkish central bank) lowers the interest rates due to the political pressure, at the end of this month. Before this, BIST will do its best to go 106K zone as quickly as possible, afterward its journey downwards to form the right shoulder should begin.
The daily chart shows divergences and the price can even stop here at its current level, but the weekly chart is bullish so I think we should see 106K to satisfy the weekly chart.
The current strength is due to the relief of US sanctions, or rather lack of US sanctions. The US only has restricted Turkey to access F35 program so it seems there will be no economic sanctions, which did fuel the rally of BIST nowadays. Still, this effect cannot last for long, especially when you expect a mega dovish TCMB stand this month.
Above you see the current contraction zone, RSI divergence and how EMAs pushing the price level higher while the current main trendline resistance trying to block the prices.
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