ZEC Long Forecast

19 mar 2022

Here's my read for the weekend.

Assuming overall crypto market pushes up at all. If the crypto market doesn't make some small gains, ZEC might drop to 150-155 range and await signal from the market or other forces rather than $163.

20 mar 2022

Nota

Some descriptive analysis regarding the lift in privacy coin value from last week of Feb thru March 19, 2022, offering specific qualitative on the market-preference for ZEC, then XMR and DASH respectively. Just some notes for future reference and questions.

Feb. 24 - March 19

ZEC: $84 - $179 ≈100+%
XMR: $132 - $194 (peak: $203) ≈50%
DASH: $88 - $100 (peak: $105) ≈14% maximum gain

DASH is relatively even with its early-march peak and has only a fraction of the volume ZEC and XMR has seen this month.

So far, ZEC has recieved two distinct waves of volume and value uptick. XMR may follow suit, though it's windfall is expected to be less than ZEC for the reasons below.

The prevailing theory thus far on ZEC's rise is that uncertainty sowed by regulatory moves in U.S., EU and elsewhere, drove cash flow into the privacy coin.

This explanation seems logical, though it doesn't explain why XMR and DASH didn't get the same boost. ALl three show good growth, but none near as sustained as ZEC.

To the above-cause, I would add the theory that privacy coins have seen greater demand from the use of cryptocurrency surrounding the Russia-Ukraine turmoil.

Ruble owners, who look to skirt domestic and global banking restrictions on their much-devalued currency would benefit from private cryptocurrency for numerous reasons.

Money flowing into the conflict--on any front--would benefit from privacy coins that could separate the donor from his recipients, as well.

Forex traders looking to take advantage of the low rates nefariously might use these coins to push money in and out of markets (seems less likely to be a significant factor).

Why the preference for ZEC, though?

Well, on both the above-mentioned causes (regulatory and Russia-Ukraine) ZEC may appear a safer option to investors thanks to its lack of darkweb ties and relative regulatory compatibility.

Transactions are cheaper on ZEC, though none of the coins seem to have prohibitively high rates. With recent upgrade to proof-of-stake announced late 2021, ZEC may also appeal to investors wary of PoW crackdowns in the future.

20 mar 2022

Nota

It looks as if XMR and DASH mostly corrected since the above notes wre made a few days ago.

Additional factors playing on ZEC price include an upgrade that will soon roll out, if it hasn't already.The upgrade includes a fix to the protocol that was a sticking-point for privacy-advocates: a proving system that didn't require a trusted setup. More: search 'zcash upgrade halo 5' (I can't link)

20 mar 2022

Nota

Long position remains in-tact/on-target. I was a little off on the timing of the correction, but the price-levels look to be on-target. Again, I think the coin will need more than sideways movement out of BTC against its $42000 roof (and/or ETH vs. $3000), but even modest crossing of those levels by the Big 2 should result in better-than-market-avg gains for ZEC.

21 mar 2022

Nota

For anyone curious or wanting to add some theories on this, I've identified three likely forces moving ZEC trading in March so far. If anyone has theories on how I might quantify these, please share because I don't think they're in order of strength and it'd be nice to have some theories on how spent these forces are now.

1. Conflict and sanctions in Russia, dealing with Russian currency as well as the use of crypto assets in various parts of finance on both sides of the invasion.

2. Increased fear or uncertainty in regulatory pressure. Of the privacy coins, ZEC offers good regulatory compatibility, privacy and plans to switch to PoS, giving it appeal in countries where PoW bans are on the books or on the table. In fact, it could be a candidate, I think, for a country to adopt or clone as a digital currency given a the apparent needs for a privacy-centric central bank coin, according to the US CBDC report.

3. The last thing is the upgrade, scheduled for mid-April. It should be a big deal to anyone who pretends to give a crap about security or privacy or even the foundation of blockchain because the halo 5 upgrade is supposed to get rid of the trusted setup Zcash fans currently soft-gaze or pretend not to notice.

As I understand it--and I understand it oversimplified, fyi--the current chain had to be setup with private keys from somewhere. Even if I trust the person or group who had access to those keys, there's always a chance they were leaked, spied, stolen, copied, etc. and still exist. At best, that fact sows doubt in ZEC privacy. It doesn't have to compromise safety and security of users or bring down the network to be a problem. What's the point of the high-tech zk-snarks setup if you can't guaruntee the premise?

This was a sticking point to early crypto adopters who vetted ZEC when it forked from BTC, and its an even bigger issue for anyone who looks at these things deeper than securities. Some of the funadmental value props of blockchains are distributed, trustless networks and ledgers, and a trusted setup basically cancels out a big chunk of what makes crypto and blockchain so capable ... right out of the box it's neutered.

Will the upgrade come in mid-April? I'm always happy just to see a blockchain upgrade that meets its deadline, so if they meet their mid-april mark, that'll be a plus. If the upgrade actually gets rid of trusted setup, it should be a huge windfall for the currency and its devs.

The real question is: Do people really care? Probably because we've had it taken away in areas of our lives, we better understand the value and cost of privacy than we did in the past, but most of the time, we're not willing to pay that cost. We want it built in, so we click "Install" and type our password without reading what we're signing away.

The great news here is that these upgrades are a huge step towards a blockchain that protects privacy right out-of-the box. You don't have to go dig through a ton of settings or "hack" the software to try and protect your privacy. It's made that way ... instead of being made to harvest your personal info, it's designed to protect it.

Now that that's out of the way, what'll do for the price? I hope it'll carve out its own niche among the DeFi as well as everyday users who use it to protect and verify customer data, business owners, security contractors, voting, etc. I don't think much of anyone aside form the ZEC grassroots crew has bought into this yet, and it's a concept that should come easily to the present buyers snatching up ZEC for its store of value and hedge on regulation (it's somewhat regulatory friendly, if investors are forced to show their hands, but it also offers discretion if investments need to be moved, transfered, etc.