McDonalds deve ancora creare un buon supportoMcDonalds non riesce a tornare sopra i 300 dollari e mostra una fase di debolezza che potrebbe arrivare fino a 275 dollari circa.
Risk Disclaimer: this is not a financial advise;
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Mcdonalds
Market Analysis: MCD - How to Execute This Trade? MCDMcDonald’s Corporation (MCD)
STOCK ANALYSIS
McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) is one of the most established and recognized stocks in the fast-food sector. In recent years, it has shown solid financial performance and continuous attention to innovation and global expansion.
In the last 1-2 years, the MCD stock has shown consistent growth despite global economic challenges. The stock has benefited from a strategy focused on improving the digital customer experience, including online orders and mobile apps. The resilience of McDonald’s franchising model has helped maintain stable revenue even during periods of uncertainty.
In 2022, McDonald’s recorded revenues of about $23.18 billion, up from $21.08 billion in 2021. The net profit was about $6 billion, marking a slight increase from the previous year. In the first quarters of 2023, McDonald’s continued to show solid financial results, with revenue growth attributable both to increased sales in existing restaurants and to chain expansion. Profitability remained robust, also thanks to cost reduction initiatives and efficient operations management.
The outlook for McDonald’s remains positive, supported by continuous menu innovation, investments in technology, and expansion into emerging markets. Analysts predict that the company will continue to benefit from its digitalization initiatives and strong franchising model, contributing to sustained stock growth.
How To Make This Trade?
As with all analyses, it's important to have a broad overview — by analyzing previous market dynamics to understand how the stock behaves and reacts.
We can see how the stock, after significant declines/rebounds, tends to retest expansion candles (candles with large upward/downward movements).
Let's move to the D chart, framing an area from October 2022 to today. The most significant candle is on October 13, 2022 (DMY), which clearly marks the end of the 2022 crisis and the start of the BullRun we are experiencing today.
Generally, these candles are strong supports — the more prominent the stock is, the more the candle is tested at it's highs. We can see how on 10/12/23, exactly one year later, the stock returns to test that Expansion candle. We use the first candle that enters in our area of interest in 2023 — 06/10/23.
This bearish candle with a nice buying spike will dictate the stock's movement range for the following 11 days — the stock will try to break upward once but fail. After further attempts, the stock starts a significant upward move of 23%, reaching a new all-time high of 302.39.
Then we see a bearish phase and return to our famous support—using the previously outlined areas, let's analyze the market dynamics in detail.
After the Earnings candle marking a new short-term low, we have another important movement on 05/23/24, which breaks the support (BOS break of Structure), immediately transforming into an excellent shorting area.
Finally, we reach our area of interest. After the stock re-test the previously support, we have a break of it and a consequent acceleration, which, however, is immediately absorbed by the market, bringing it back above the previously analyzed low.
This is a very good and important signal. If you analyze the candle on D, you notice that the candle still closes inside the support and not below, validating it's strength.
The commanding candle now is the breakout one — we see how the price immediately tests it downward, creating a new low but always closing inside it. Then the price rises and tests the candle's high - is weakly rejected, and then breaks upward.
This set of signals confirms that we can open a long position — False Breakout — Valid Support — Price Action.
We then wait for a slight price retracement after the upward BOS break to open our position. In this case, based on our risk aversion, we place the Stop Loss at the previous low (245.53) or the second low (247.43).
We consider the more aggressive trade. The SL also corresponds to the low of the expansion candle that broke the previous structure, so we have excellent defense.
We place two Take Profit, both on the most important bearish expansion candles we find (which also correspond to previous descending highs).
TimingTrade
Nuovo massimo storico per McDonald'sMcDonald's ieri è andato a fare un nuovo massimo storico. Ma soprattutto ha completato alla perfezione la prima parte della flag rialzista. Purtroppo non l'avevo postata su TW, ma su una testata on-line su cui scrivo di Azioni USA.
In questa situazione, di forza del titolo , al momento non ci sono segnali di inversione. Sarà da monitorare la chiusura della candela weekly, nel caso facesse una doji od una shooting star.
Inversione Rialzista? Attenzione a MCDMDC sta testando un'area di supporto/resistenza storica e ieri ha chiuso un bellissimo hammer sul giornaliero. Il minimo di ieri coincide perfettamente con un livello 0.23 di Fibonacci disegnato su un timeframe settimanale molto più ampio, che considera perciò il vasto trend positivo dell'azione e mette in evidenza l'alta probabilità che MCD stia per invertire dopo un ritracciamento.
Invito però tutti a fare molta attenzione, dato che le azioni più capitalizzate del mondo (come AAPL) stanno dando brutti segni in questi giorni e un'inversione del trend generale del mercato è sospetta. Dunque cautela, personalmente se dovessi entrare in un long alla conferma di questo eccellente segnale su MCD, date le circostanze generali lo farei con lo stop loss garantito...
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Buon trading a tutti
MC Donalds Short dopo i primi segnali di cedimentoMCD dopo i primi segnali di cedimento ha dato conferma della propria debolezza con il target dato dal pattern armonico, più rotture degli ultimi minimi fatti con prepotenza, entro con un r/r 1 a 1 proprio perchè siamo in una zona di mercato molto a favore, cercherò di seguire il trend di breve per vedere dove andremo a finire con questa operazione.