$BABA: Rally Strong in 2025 — Yet Ant Group Fallout Still Casts a Shadow

Court: S.D. New York

Case: 1:20-cv-09568

Alibaba BABA has staged an impressive rebound this year, climbing +41% YTD and posting a 50.5% one-year return, far outpacing global peers. The rally has been fueled by improving sentiment toward undervalued Chinese tech stocks, even as Beijing’s export curbs and ongoing trade frictions test investor confidence. Valuation models still suggest upside, but the legacy of Ant Group’s regulatory drama continues to weigh on the long-term narrative.

• +41% YTD and +50.5% one-year total return, outshining tech rivals.
• Discounted Cash Flow analysis pegs fair value at $157.44/share, 23.8% undervalued.
• PE ratio of 14.9x vs industry average of 22.5x, suggesting Alibaba trades at a steep discount.
• Free cash flow stands at $109.1B, projected to reach $201.5B by 2035.
• Regulatory and geopolitical risks remain a key overhang despite strong fundamentals.

• Timeline OverviewNov 5, 2019 — Chinese regulators warned Alibaba and peers on antitrust compliance.Nov 2, 2020 — Ant Group executives were summoned over new lending rules.Nov 3, 2020 — Ant’s IPO suspended; BABA dropped 8%.Dec 23–24, 2020 — Antitrust probe revealed; BABA plunged 13%.Apr 22, 2022 — Investors filed lawsuit over misleading disclosures.Aug 2025 — Alibaba agreed to $433.5M cash settlement.
• Allegations IncludeMisleading investors on Ant Group’s regulatory exposure.Concealing compliance risks tied to consumer lending.Failure to disclose antitrust investigations before market shock.Downplaying impact on Alibaba’s growth strategy.
• Investor UpdateSettlement resolves claims tied to Ant Group’s derailed IPO.$433.5M settlement approved, compensating affected investors.Regulatory overhang remains a cautionary factor for long-term holders.

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