BABA: Jefferies Sees Strong AI Upside — But Ant Group Fallout Still Weighs

Court: S.D. New York

Case: 1:20-cv-09568

Jefferies remains bullish on Alibaba (BABA), citing robust momentum in AI and cloud segments as reasons for its upbeat stance. The investment firm upgraded Q2 growth expectations and pointed to solid revenue from Alibaba’s Cloud Intelligent Group. But even as future prospects brighten, the $433.5M settlement over the Ant Group saga still casts a long-term shadow.

📊 Jefferies Forecasts and AI Surge

• Cloud revenue growth hit +18% YoY in Q4 FY2025; AI-related product revenue rose triple digits for the 7th straight quarter.
• New growth forecast for Cloud Intelligent Group revenue raised to +23% from 20%.
• Advertising & merchant services expected to grow 10.5% YoY, supported by higher service fees and better monetization tools.
• Capital commitment: $53 billion over 3 years into AI and cloud infrastructure.

🧾 But Legal Fallout From Ant IPO Still Casts a Long Shadow

• 📆 Timeline OverviewNov 5, 2019: SAMR warns Alibaba and peers over antitrust conduct.Nov 3, 2020: Ant IPO suspended abruptly, BABA tumbles 8%.Dec 24, 2020: SAMR antitrust probe triggers a 13% crash in BABA.Apr 22, 2022: Investors file lawsuit over withheld regulatory risk.
• 💼 Allegations IncludeMisleading investors about Ant Group's regulatory vulnerabilities.Failing to disclose increased government scrutiny before the IPO.Misrepresenting financial exposure tied to Ant’s lending practices.
• 💰 Investor UpdateAlibaba agreed to a $433.5 million settlement to resolve shareholder claims related to the failed Ant IPO and misleading risk disclosures.

👉 You can check more information about it and file for a payout HERE.