$BABA: Stock Outlook Improves — But $433.5M Ant Group Settlement Still Casts a Shadow

Court: S.D. New York

Case: 1:20-cv-09568

Alibaba’s BABA core e-commerce engine continues to bankroll its ventures in cloud, food delivery, and AI, with analysts pointing to cheap valuations and strong profitability as reasons for optimism. Yet, despite the growth story, its $433.5 million investor settlement tied to Ant Group’s failed IPO remains an unresolved legal overhang.

• Alibaba’s e-commerce arm generated $62B in FY2025, funding newer businesses despite slower revenue growth.
• 46% stock rise over the past year, even with trade war risks and muted top-line expansion.
• Cloud business remains profitable, with triple-digit AI revenue growth for six straight quarters.
• Expanding food delivery with $7B in promotions, while maintaining a strong buyback program.
• Shares trade at 14x current earnings and <11x forward earnings, signaling attractive valuation.

Timeline Overview

• Nov 5, 2019: Regulators warned Alibaba on antitrust and financial law compliance.
• Nov 2, 2020: Ant Group executives summoned over lending rules.
• Nov 3, 2020: Ant’s IPO suspended; BABA dropped 8% in one day.
• Dec 23–24, 2020: Antitrust probe revealed; BABA fell 13%.
• Apr 22, 2022: Shareholders filed lawsuits over misleading disclosures.

Allegations Include

• Concealing Ant Group’s regulatory risks ahead of the IPO.
• Misleading investors about lending compliance and market practices.
• Downplaying exposure to Chinese antitrust scrutiny.
• Issuing false assurances on financial outlook.

Investor Update

Alibaba agreed to a $433.5 million settlement to end litigation tied to Ant Group’s failed IPO and regulatory risks. While this payout closes a significant case, it highlights ongoing transparency challenges that investors continue to monitor.

You can check more information about it and file for a payout HERE.