Wheat Futures Drop as Rainfall Supports Crops — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

• Wheat for September delivery fell 1.3% to $5.34 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with rainfall in Plains states replenishing soil moisture and helping spring wheat crops along.
• Corn for December delivery fell 0.8% to $4.20 3/4 a bushel.
• Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.7% to $10.27 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

More Rain: CBOT wheat led the way lower for the grains complex. "Wheat is seeing some pressure from wetter forecasts for the U.S. Plains up into Canada," said Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting. The U.S. Drought Monitor data show dry conditions further dissipating in Plains states like Nebraska and South Dakota. Eastern Corn Belt states like Iowa and Missouri are essentially drought-free, according to the Drought Monitor.

Sweetener Switch: Grain traders are attempting to understand the effect of a switch in the sweetener used in U.S. Coca-Cola from high fructose corn syrup to sugarcane--and what effect that may have on the consumption of U.S. corn crops. "Roughly 410 million bushels of corn--about 8-9% of annual usage--currently go toward high fructose corn syrup production, making this a potentially significant hit to the domestic demand base if more companies follow suit with MAHA's ingredient policy shifts," said John Stewart and Associates in a note. President Trump's post on Truth Social declaring that Coca-Cola has agreed to this change sent agricultural stocks like ADM and INGR lower in trading.

A New Low: Export sales of U.S. corn for the 2024-2025 marketing year landed at a marketing-year low, according to USDA data-which was another drag on corn futures Thursday. The 2024-2025 corn sales for the week ended July 10 totaled 97,600 metric tons--a new low. The 2025-2026 sales totaled 565,900 tons. The combined total of 663,500 tons falls below the forecasts of analysts surveyed by the WSJ this week, who had projected sales between 900,000 tons and 2 million tons. Pulling old-crop corn sales down were cancellations of 390,700 tons of previously announced sales to unknown destinations and 79,300 tons to Mexico, the USDA said.

INSIGHT

Seeing the Signs: Grain traders are increasingly watching for indications out of the U.S. and Chinese government to speculate if a trade deal is imminent between the two — hopefully picking up where 2020's Phase One Agreement left off. "There have been hints that a broader trade deal with China could look similar to the Phase One trade deal signed during Trump 1.0, although that has not been stated in official channels," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note.

Meet the Beets: President Trump's Truth Social post stated Coca-Cola has agreed to remove high fructose corn syrup from their soda, in favor of using sugar sourced from sugarcane. But high fructose corn syrup is a big consumer of the corn produced in the U.S. — and the majority of sugar made in the U.S. comes from sugar beets, not sugarcane. The USDA says that sugar beets accounted for 55% to 60% of total sugar production since the early 2000s. But most U.S. farmers don't grow beets for sugar, never mind sugarcane — with sugar crops accounting for less than 1% of cash receipts for U.S. farmers on average.

AHEAD

• The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
• The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
• The USDA will release its Chicken and Eggs report at 3 p.m. ET Monday.
• The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com