Wheat Futures Fall as Traders Set Aside Weaker Dollar — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

• Wheat for September delivery fell 1.2% to $5.16 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, falling despite the weaker dollar that tends to buoy futures, as good weather and the apparent implementation of new tariffs leave traders risk-off.
• Corn for December delivery fell 0.7% to $4.10 3/4 a bushel.
• Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.1% to $9.88 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Pressing Forward: The U.S. dollar fell after President Trump announced new tariffs and July payrolls were weaker than expected, while jobs numbers for May and June were revised sharply lower.

But even being down by 0.8%, the U.S. dollar did little to nothing for grain futures. A lower U.S. dollar makes export sales of U.S. grains more competitive on the world stage, but grains instead were pressured by a wave of fresh tariffs, pumping more uncertainty into the import/export business.

The president still has time next week to amend tariffs, but analysts and investors are unsure if he will.

Taking a Drink: Soil moisture for Argentine crops is improving thanks to timely rains, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. This is particularly true for Argentina's wheat, which put pressure on Chicago futures.

With the wheat crop condition in Argentina over 95% excellent, the country is seen as a strong competitor to the U.S., with fresh tariffs unsettling existing supply chain norms for grains and potentially giving Argentina more opportunity to sell grain exports.

Not Quite There: CBOT soybean futures were positive for much of the day, but ultimately unable to end the losing streak seen in soybeans across the past five trading sessions, and eight of the past nine trading days.

Soybeans fell under the $10/bushel mark and shed nearly 10% of their value in that time, as fund traders have taken an increasingly negative view on the prospects for futures, Matt Zeller of StoneX said in a note.

INSIGHT

Lacking Spark: The USDA reported a new round of flash sales of U.S. corn exports, with two sales reported to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025-26 marketing year. A total of 352,160 metric tons of corn were sold, according to the USDA.

Export demand has been increasingly a major driver for CBOT grain futures, but this sale didn't push corn into positive territory.

"The market continues to be weighed down by the large U.S. crop on the way," John Stewart and Associates said in a note.

Light Drought: U.S. crops managed to make it out of June and July mostly unscathed, with the U.S. Drought Monitor reporting shrinking drought coverage of farmland across the country this week.

Of Corn Belt states, only North Dakota and Nebraska are seeing any large areas affected by dryness, while for the rest of the Corn Belt dryness it is practically nonexistent, making a record-size crop forecast by the USDA this year more likely.

"A year ago heat in the second half of August and rapid net soil moisture loss stole from potential from final yields," said Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note.

AHEAD

• Tyson Foods Inc. is scheduled to release its 3Q 2025 earnings report at 7:30 a.m. EDT Monday.
• The USDA is due to release its weekly grain export inspections report at 11 a.m. EDT Monday.
• The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EDT Monday.
• Andersons Inc. is scheduled to release its 2Q 2025 earnings report at 4:05 p.m. EDT Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com