Morgan Stanley Sees Nio Guiding for Record Q3 Sales on Strong L90 Backlog

Morgan Stanley (MS, Financials) said Saturday it expects Nio (NIO, Financials) to issue record third-quarter sales guidance, backed by a strong order backlog for the new Onvo L90 SUV.

The bank forecasts Nio will guide for deliveries of 78,000 to 80,000 vehicles in the quarter, up 8% to 11% sequentially. Nio delivered 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles in Q2, a 72% jump from the prior quarter and 26% year over year.

Revenue for Q2 is projected between 19.5 billion yuan and 20.1 billion yuan ($2.71 billion$2.80 billion), in line with the company's guidance. Morgan Stanley expects the Q3 net loss to narrow to about 5.5 billion yuan ($766 million) from 6.9 billion yuan in Q1.

Nio delivered 21,017 vehicles in July, the first month of Q3. Based on that, Morgan Stanley estimates 56,983 to 58,983 deliveries for August and September combined, which would set a new monthly record but remain below the December 2024 peak of 31,138.

Shares of Nio fell nearly 9% Tuesday to $4.47 after Morgan Stanley flagged concerns over L90 production and the risk of a capital raise. The stock rebounded by the end of the week, closing Friday at $4.81.