TSLA: JPMorgan Sees 'Material Risk' To Tesla, Shares Could Fall Over 60%

July 2 - J.P. Morgan JPM warns Tesla TSLA shares could slide more than 60%, as the EV maker's recent political distractions and soft sales weigh on demand.

Tesla stock fell about 5% Tuesday, extending a year?to?date decline of over 25%.

Analyst Ryan Brinkman cites material risks to delivery forecasts after Q1's 13% year?on?year drop, which channel checks suggest may deepen to a 19% fall in Q2. He now expects deliveries of 360,000 vehicles, below the 392,000 consensus.

Brinkman trimmed his Q2 EPS estimate to $0.42 from $0.48, and cut full?year guidance to $1.75 from $2.07, both under Wall Street's respective forecasts of $0.45 and $1.87.

The analyst retained his Underweight rating with a $115 price target, implying roughly a 62% downside over the next 12 months. By contrast, the Street's average target of $291 still suggests a modest overvaluation of about 3%, with a consensus Hold rating.

Brinkman points to waning federal subsidies and a challenging macro environment as headwinds, even as Musk prepares to unveil a lower?cost model.

Investors will be watching Tesla's Q2 delivery report closely for signs of a sustained recovery.