UBS Warns Chipotle Could Miss Q3 Expectations

UBS is sounding cautious ahead of Chipotle Mexican Grill's CMG third-quarter earnings, warning the burrito chain could potentially miss market estimates, while trimming its full-year outlook. Analyst Dennis Geiger feels Chipotle's sales and earnings appear pressured by both industry-wide headwinds and a more cautious consumer environment.

We believe the top-line softness this year is largely a function of industry headwinds, including a still struggling consumer below $100K income, with emerging weakness from younger consumers, Geiger noted. UBS said investors will be watching for Q4 sales trends, marketing effectiveness, and whether Chipotle can improve value perceptions amid tighter budgets.

UBS cut its price target on CMG to $56 from $65 but maintained a Buy rating, citing confidence in long-term growth. The firm expects Chipotle's transaction momentum to improve in 2026, supported by an estimated 9% expansion in new restaurant openings.