MercadoLibre Q2 Preview: Will Fintech Gains Offset FX Pain?

Mercado Libre MELI will release second-quarter results after the bell on 4 Aug. Consensus calls for revenue of $6.68 billion, up 32% YoY, and EPS of $11.93 up 14% YoY. Shares closed $2,375.92 on 1 Aug 2025, up roughly 39% year-to-date, leaving the stock 10% below the July record and pricing in flawless execution. Investors will focus on total payment volume, credit-portfolio loss ratios, and take-rate trends as Mercado Pago widens its lead over regional banks and fintech upstarts.

The e-commerce marketplace still drives Gross Merchandise Volume, but the narrative has shifted to high-margin fintech and logistics. Analysts expect total payment volume to reach $64.0 billion as Mercado Pago's merchant services and wallet activity extend their lead across Latin America. Credit quality will be important to watch. Loss ratios must stay below the low-11% range to protect the mid-20% EBIT-margin target.

Marketplace gross merchandise volume is forecast to slow to the high-teens as Amazon AMZN and Shopee SE spend aggressively in Brazil. Yet Mercado Libre's logistics edge (94% of packages delivered within 48 hours) offers pricing power that peers lack.

Macro headwinds mount. The Trump administration unveiled a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports. While it does not affect Mercado Libre directly, it will squeeze consumer wallets and could indirectly affect Mercado Libre marketplace spend in that country. Management color on that will be interesting.

Other risks include real volatility, Argentine price caps, and Amazon's renewed push in Brazil. Any credit-loss uptick or margin slip could pressure the 45 forward P/E. Updates on cross-border expansion, fulfilment density, and new credit-card rollouts will guide the next leg of the stock.