Palantir: The UK Deal That Might Ignite Its Next Growth Phase

Oct 17 - Last month was quite good for Palantir PLTR as it won a strategic U.K. partnership tied to up to 1.5 billion of planned investment and a London defense headquarters that the company says could seed future NATO and European MoD work.

The move comes amid a flurry of recent contract wins the company says bolster its international push. Since summer, Palantir disclosed seven deals including enterprise deployments at Lumen LUMN and expanded engagements with Lear Corporation LEA, a defense collaboration with Hadean in the U.K., and a multi-site deployment with Boeing BA.

The company also faces local scrutiny over a smaller pilot with Coventry City Council to integrate AI into social services, and on Oct. 6 was selected by OneMedNet as infrastructure for a near-real-time, regulatory-grade clinical data network.

On guidance, management has lifted fiscal 2025 targets and issued Q3 revenue guidance of $1.083 billion to $1.087 billion, about 8% sequential growth at the midpoint, with a FY25 midpoint of $4.146 billion, implying 45% year-on-year growth.

Investors will focus on Q3 results scheduled for Monday, Nov. 3, 2025, after the U.S. market close, where management expects adjusted income from operations near $493 million to $497 million.

Market watchers say the U.K. partnership is the highest-leverage development for Palantir's international government business, which remains small relative to its U.S. government segment; international government revenue was $127 million in Q2 versus $426 million from the U.S. segment.

But challenges remain: the international commercial segment has lagged, showing weak or negative year-over-year trends, and regulatory headwinds from the EU AI Act could complicate scaling in Europe. Valuation also remains rich, a restraint for more risk-averse investors.

Technically, trading patterns show an ascending triangle converging ahead of the earnings release, a setup some traders say could amplify volatility when results arrive.

Management flagged a hiring ramp in Q3 tied to the London HQ, and executives flagged a Rule of 40 near 91%, metrics investors will scrutinize.