UnitedHealth Stock Set for Rebound as Analyst Sees Stronger Q3, Brighter 2026 Outlook

Oct 13 - UnitedHealth UNH has trailed the broader market this year, with shares down about 30% amid a series of disappointing quarters and shifting profit guidance, according to a Monday note from Bernstein.

The company withdrew its 2025 earnings outlook earlier in the year before reinstating it after second-quarter results that still missed Wall Street estimates. Elevated healthcare costs and weaker margins weighed on sentiment through most of 2025.

Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes expects the upcoming third-quarter results, due Oct. 28, to meet or slightly top consensus forecasts for adjusted earnings per share of $2.84 and a medical loss ratio of 90.7%. He said investor attention will likely center on the company's 2026 forecast, where modest upside could emerge.

During its last call, UnitedHealth guided for mid- to high-single-digit EPS growth in 2026. Wilkes thinks that outlook may be lifted modestly later this month or by December. He also expects margins in the Medicare Advantage business to strengthen from 2026 through 2028, even as membership dips about 8%.

For Optum Health, the analyst projects earnings to fall sharply in 2025 due to elevated medical loss ratios but anticipates gradual improvement from 2026 onward as contract repricing and business exits begin to take effect.