Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides on tech sector reversal, gold stocks shine for another day

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 47.7 points lower, down 0.57%.

All three winning sectors form today's trade are generally considered to be quite defensive in nature. As a fund manager, they’re the sectors you buy when you reluctantly have to buy something on the day…

Losers? They were far easier to spot as the Aussie stock market performed a disappointing about-face from yesterday's record intraday high. Where did all the buyers go!? 🤔

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Iron Ore and Copper in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Today in Review

Wed 20 Nov 24, 5:03pm (AEDT)

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 47.7 points lower at 8,326.3, 0.84% from its session high and just 0.10% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a truly dismal 64 to 214.

The Gold (XGD) (+0.67%) sub-index was the best performing sector for a second day in a row, again helped by an improving gold (and silver) price. Health Care (XHJ) (+0.27%) and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.19%) were the only other sectors that managed to close in the black today .

To be fair, gains in each of these sectors was hardly emphatic. Health Care's gain, for example was extremely narrow – really just stemming from CSL CSL (+1.1%) and Pro Medicus PME (+0.96%).

Also consider all three winning sectors today are generally considered to be quite defensive in nature. As a fund manager, they’re the sectors you buy when you reluctantly have to buy something on the day…

If we really want to discuss winners. Proper winners, scroll/swipe down to today's Interesting Moves section. There you'll see just how consistent today's winners were with my ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists. It might be worth keeping an eye on this update, published each morning at 9am Eastern on the dot! 🧐📈

Today’s best stocks from the strongest ASX sectors

Everything that’s considered to be skewed more to the risk-on end of the spectrum was hit much harder today – a complete about face of the typical sentiment you’d usually associate with a market that just tipped a new all time high just yesterday.

It's enough to leave one scratching their head and with a slightly uneasy feeling in the pit of one's stomach...😟

High-PE tech related sectors like Communication Services (XTJ) (-1.5%) and Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.82%) were notable thematic losers. But so too were growth-related sectors like Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.1%), Energy (XEJ) (-1.0%), and Resources (XJR) (-0.39%).

Today’s worst stocks from the weakest ASX sectors

ChartWatch

Iron Ore 62% (Front month, back-adjusted) SGX

Snooze 😴

The last time we covered iron ore was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 12 November.

In that update, we noted markets were again disappointed that another major Chinese government policy meeting passed without unveiling the much anticipated “stimulus bazooka”. There was also a general malaise that had beset metals markets following the Trump + Red Sweep US election result (tariffs on Chinese exports to the USA = 👎).

Not a great deal has changed since then, with the price of iron ore dipping further, then steadying, to close roughly the same as it was at that update.

The short term trend is still down, though, and the long term downtrend has had time to solidify further. The price action looks comfortable in falling peaks and falling troughs mode, and the candles are mixed at best.

Bottom line: Equilibrium with a slight supply-side bias.

95.80 is the nearest point of demand. A close below it would likely facilitate a probe of major demand at 88.35-89.15.

The long term trend ribbon is the nearest point of supply. It kicks in around 103.60 but is reinforced by static points of demand at 106.20, 108.95, and then the “big one”, 113.60-114.90. The iron ore price must deal with each of these if it wants to reverse the prevailing long term downtrend.

The path of least resistance remains down here, albeit at a slow grind. There remains no sign whatsoever of the seasonal rally that really should be beginning as you finish reading this sentence.

It’d going to take some large demand-side candles to kick it off (long white-bodied candles and or long downward pointing shadow). It will stand out like dogs’ you know what’s when it happens. Until then…hit the snooze button! 😴

High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Copper copping it...

The last time we covered was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on Evening Wrap on 12 November.

In that update, I said “it is growing clear to me that the supply side is in control of the price again”. Indeed, several supply-side candles have followed to cause the copper price to smash into the key 3.989-4.042 demand zone.

I also noted in that last update, that the candles in that zone would be critical. Note one of the classic “fingerprints of excess demand” as I call them – the long downward pointing shadow of the 14 November candle smack-bang in the demand zone – stamped out a temporary low.

The rally since then is less than inspiring. We just haven’t seen an emphatic demand-side follow through in either the candles or the volume.

This leads me to believe the short term downtrend ribbon is likely to offer some stiff excess supply, it will kick in around 4.24. Not far above the short term downtrend ribbon is a further potential wall of supply in the form of the long term downtrend ribbon, as well as the static 4.274-4.294 zone.

Watch the candles closely from here because black-bodied variants or those with long upward pointing shadows into known zones of supply will likely terminate this fledgling bounce.

In this scenario, if 3.989 goes then 3.893 may hold, but probing of lower demand areas like 3.753 or even 3.657 may also be possible.

Only a strong demand-side candle closing deep into the abovementioned supply zones would signal sentiment, and therefore control of the price, has changed.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Wednesday

• 18:00 UK Core Consumer Price Index October (CPI) (+3.1% p.a. forecast vs 3.2% p.a. in September)

Thursday

• 19:00 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

Friday

• 09:00 AUS Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) October (was 47.3 in September) & Flash Services PMI October (was 51.0 in September)

• 19:15 EUR Various countries Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs October (Germany: Manufacturing forecast 43.1 vs 43.0 in September & Services 51.8 forecast vs 51.6 in September; Eurozone: Manufacturing forecast no change at 46.0 & Services forecast no change at 51.6)

Saturday

• 01:45 US Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) October (was 47.3 in September) & Flash Services PMI October (was 51.0 in September)

Latest News

Midday Market Movers ehl era

Stocks making the biggest moves at noon: Energy Resources of Australia, PWR Holdings and more

Wed 20 Nov 24, 12:16pm (AEDT)

Quick Takes hls

Healius could pay a one-off special dividend of $300 million (or 25-30% yield)

Wed 20 Nov 24, 10:45am (AEDT)

Technical Analysis aai alq

ChartWatch ASX Scans: Alcoa, ALS, Brambles, Generation Development, Hub24, Noviqtech, Cettire, CSL, Elders, IGO

Wed 20 Nov 24, 9:00am (AEDT)

Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, US markets mixed + Gold, iron ore and lithium miners to rise

Wed 20 Nov 24, 8:36am (AEDT)

Market Wraps alq deg

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 tips new record on surging gold, energy and tech stocks, lithium stocks tank despite rising lithium price

Tue 19 Nov 24, 6:00pm (AEDT)

Director Transactions ben ctd

Insider Trades: Directors bought and sold shares in these 6 ASX 200 stocks last week

Tue 19 Nov 24, 3:46pm (AEDT)

More News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +8.4% Catapult Group International (CAT) - Continued positive response to yesterday's N, yet again, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends making it one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +5.9% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - NexGen Achieves Major Permitting Milestone, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends making (recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈

• +5.8% Iperionx (IPX) - IperionX 2024 Sustainability Report, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +5.4% Rpmglobal (RUL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +5.3% Regal Partners (RPL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +4.3% SRG Global (SRG) - Continued positive response to yesterday's $700m of Contracts Secured with Key Repeat Clients, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +3.3% Perenti (PRN) - Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +3.2% Generation Development Group (GDG) - Continued positive response to yesterday's AGM presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +3.2% Pointsbet (PBH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -24.6% PWR Holdings (PWH) - PWR Trading Update, yet again, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends making it a regularly Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -13.5% Appen (APX) - No news, generally weaker ASX tech sector today, pullback after a strong rally

• -9.8% Webjet (WJL) - Delayed release of 1H25 results

• -9.5% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - Continued negative response to 15 Nov Peninsula Energy/Lance Project Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -9.0% Mader Group (MAD) - Change of Director's Interest Notice and Change in substantial holding (CEO and founder sell down)

• -7.5% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - No news, consistent with recent extreme price volatility, back below long term downtrend ribbon

• -6.6% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -5.0% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -4.8% Imugene (IMU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -4.7% Immutep (IMM) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, making this one also a heavily Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• ALS (ALQ)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $16.65 from $14.85

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $14.40 from $14.25

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $17.70 from $16.90

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.25 from $15.00

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $16.75 from $15.50

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $17.50 from $16.30

• Atlas Arteria (ALX)

  • Initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.80

• Amcor (AMC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.00

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.50

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $46.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $47.30 from $47.80

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $46.85

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $43.00

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.54 from $7.23

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.30 from $8.10

• Cochlear (COH)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $305.00

• Elders (ELD)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.75

• Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.61 from $0.66

• Gentrack Group (GTK)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $11.50 from $10.90

• Healius (HLS)

  • Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.50

• Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00

• KMD Brands (KMD)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.50

• Lotus Resources (LOT)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.42

• Monadelphous Group (MND)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $13.90 from $13.80

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.20

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.44 from $14.50

• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $72.50 from $74.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $82.00

• New Hope Corporation (NHC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.00

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.00

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $15.20

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.90

• Qantas Airways (QAN)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.50 from $8.50

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.80

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.25 from $19.30

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $124.00

• Resimac Group (RMC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30

• Steadfast Group (SDF)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80

• Seek (SEK)

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $28.50

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $21.50

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $27.00 from $22.00

• Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.00

• SRG Global (SRG)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.40

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.40

• Santos (STO)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.60

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.90

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $7.85 from $7.90

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.70 from $8.50

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.99 from $7.97

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.75

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.15 from $8.40

• Suncorp Group (SUN)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00

• Technology One (TNE)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $29.50 from $24.00

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $26.90 from $24.05

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $27.00 from $18.50

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $27.90 from $22.20

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.50 from $15.20

  • Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $29.90 from $20.50

  • Downgraded to lighten from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $25.20 from $17.60

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $35.00 from $24.00

  • Retained at hold at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $29.30 from $17.30

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $33.80 from $26.20

• Wagners Holding Company (WGN)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.25

Scans

Top Gainers

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Top Fallers

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52 Week Highs

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52 Week Lows

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Near Highs

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

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