Jefferies expects focus on MAAS Group to hit EBITDA target after recent misses

** Australia's Maas Group MGH to report FY25 results on August 21; Jefferies eyes delivery at pre-revaluation underlying-EBITDA line after recent shortfalls, but notes heavy rain in NSW and Queensland in 2H25 adds uncertainty

** Brokerage keeps FY25 earnings forecasts broadly in line with market consensus; sees net debt at June-end at A$648 million ($422.04 million), vs Street's A$679 mln

** Jefferies expects investor focus to be on FY25 pre-revaluation underlying-EBITDA delivery; timing of major renewables projects starts; housing estate foot traffic and FY26 sales forecast; expanded permitting at Cleary Bros and Melbourne East quarries

** Brokerage also expects market to watch out for any updates on commercial real estate monetisation, M&A pipeline, Capital Asphalt probe, and customer impact

** Retains broadly constructive view but flags need for "delivery" on pre-revaluation performance after recent misses; notes CEO Wes Maas's recent security financing disclosure created some investor confusion

** Stock down 9.4% YTD

($1 = 1.5354 Australian dollars)