US natgas prices hit 4-month high on contract expiry, near-record LNG export flows
- December futures up 17% from November's close
- Gas output in Lower 48 states falls to 107.0 billion cubic feet per day in October
- LNG export feedgas on track for monthly record high of 16.5 bcfd in October
- Gas storage levels about 5% above normal, easing supply concerns
- EIA reports larger-than-usual storage build last week
By Scott DiSavino
U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% to a four-month high on Thursday on the first day of the more expensive December contract as the front month, near-record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and an output drop this month.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for December delivery 
NG1! on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.1 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $3.956 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
That move put the contract up about 17% from where the lower-priced November 2025 futures contract closed when it was still the front-month on Wednesday, its biggest daily percentage gain since last October when prices soared around 21% after the expiration of the November 2024 futures contract.
The price jump also pushed the front-month into technically overbought territory for the first time in three weeks and put it on track for its highest close since June 18.
The front-month price moved higher despite a federal report showing last week's storage build was bigger than usual for this time of year and forecasts for mild weather and less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms injected 74 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended October 24.
That figure was in line with the 73-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 79 bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 67 bcf over the past five years.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.5 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.
Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 14.
That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 108.5 bcfd over the next two weeks. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.5 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
Week ended Oct 24 Actual | Week ended Oct 17 Actual | Year ago Oct 24 | Five-year average Oct 24 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +74 | +87 | +79 | +67 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,882 | 3,808 | 3,853 | 3,711 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.6% | +4.5% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.80 | 3.82 | 2.58 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 10.82 | 10.79 | 12.89 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 11.22 | 11.15 | 13.35 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs | 202 | 203 | 134 | 212 | 226 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 17 | 16 | 49 | 23 | 17 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 219 | 219 | 183 | 235 | 243 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 107.0 | 107.6 | 107.6 | 102.8 | 98.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.3 | N/A | 7.4 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.5 | 115.2 | 114.8 | N/A | 105.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.2 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.6 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 16.9 | 16.8 | 17.4 | 13.1 | 11.3 |
U.S. Commercial | 6.8 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 6.9 |
U.S. Residential | 7.7 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 7.1 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.5 | 32.1 | 29.5 | 34.0 | 31.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.8 | 23.4 | 23.5 | 22.6 | 22.4 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 76.2 | 83.1 | 82.3 | 80.4 | 76.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 101.9 | 108.5 | 108.4 | N/A | 95.9 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 93 | 94 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 89 | 90 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 89 | 89 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 24 | Week ended Oct 17 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 13 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 40 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 3.36 | 3.44 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 2.99 | 3.05 | 1.64 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 3.79 | 3.74 | 3.72 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 2.78 | 2.99 | 1.53 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 3.12 | 3.20 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 3.22 | 3.45 | 1.80 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 3.63 | 3.65 | 2.60 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 0.64 | 1.36 | 0.59 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 1.31 | 1.30 | 0.77 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) | 52.90 | 53.06 | 40.14 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West (E-PJWHRTP-IX) | 64.16 | 60.75 | 41.96 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX) | 46.59 | 45.69 | 55.48 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) | 34.58 | 35.08 | 45.83 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX) | 35.57 | 36.70 | 35.86 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
