US natgas prices gain 3% to 7-month high on record LNG export flows
- Record LNG export flows drive demand and price increase
- Freeport LNG plant resumes operations after outage
- Oil-to-gas ratio hits lowest since December 2022
- Gas output hits record highs, storage levels above average
By Scott DiSavino
U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a seven-month high on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery 
NG1! on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.2 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $4.266 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since March 11.
That price increase kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for a third consecutive day for the first time since early October.
With gas futures up about 37% over the past three months and oil 
CL1! futures down about 12% over the same time, the oil-to-gas ratio, the level where oil trades compared with gas, fell to 14-to-1, its lowest since December 2022. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas.
So far in 2025, crude prices have averaged about 19 times over gas, down from 33 times over gas in 2024 and 21 times over gas during the prior five years (2019-2023).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.
On a daily basis, output rose to a record 109.4 bcfd on Sunday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28.
Record output so far this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 18, which should limit heating demand.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 108.2 bcfd this week to 114.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while the forecast for next week was higher.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.2 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.
Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was on track to take in more natural gas on Monday, data from financial firm LSEG and company filings with state environmental regulators showed, in a sign that it was back in service after a major outage on Saturday.
Week ended Oct 31 Actual | Week ended Oct 24 Actual | Year ago Oct 31 | Five-year average Oct 31 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +37 | +74 | +68 | +42 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,919 | 3,882 | 3,921 | 3,753 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.4% | +4.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 4.34 | 4.12 | 2.98 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 10.73 | 10.46 | 13.89 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 11.00 | 11.13 | 14.12 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs | 227 | 200 | 176 | 249 | 246 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 17 | 18 | 32 | 17 | 14 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 244 | 218 | 208 | 266 | 260 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 107.6 | 108.6 | 108.3 | 101.3 | 99.2 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.6 | 8.0 | 7.9 | N/A | 8.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.2 | 116.6 | 116.2 | N/A | 107.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.6 | N/A | 5.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 16.8 | 17.5 | 17.4 | 12.8 | 12.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 8.6 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 11.0 |
U.S. Residential | 11.5 | 12.5 | 16.3 | 10.4 | 15.7 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.4 | 29.0 | 28.9 | 34.5 | 30.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.4 | 23.5 | 23.8 | 22.7 | 24.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 83.7 | 81.9 | 87.8 | 83.1 | 89.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 109.2 | 108.2 | 114.6 | N/A | 110.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 96 | 94 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 91 | 90 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 92 | 91 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 7 | Week ended Oct 31 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 37 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 3.57 | 3.46 | 2.10 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 3.01 | 3.15 | 1.99 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 3.13 | 3.72 | 3.29 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 2.92 | 3.01 | 1.83 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 3.02 | 3.28 | 1.98 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 3.15 | 3.32 | 2.70 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 3.26 | 3.63 | 2.55 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 1.37 | 1.30 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) | 44.73 | 44.73 | 44.71 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West (E-PJWHRTP-IX) | 59.86 | 56.07 | 35.99 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX) | 44.94 | 46.59 | 37.13 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) | 41.78 | 34.58 | 29.23 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX) | 32.05 | 35.57 | 30.01 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
