Cocoa Futures at 11-Month Low

Cocoa futures eased to below $6,900 per tonne, their lowest level since October 25, driven by stronger supply outlooks and optimism over a potential delay to EU deforestation rules.

Cocoa prices have experienced a noticeable decline recently, mainly on expectations of a global surplus driven by improved crop prospects in the dominant West African region.

Recent heavy rains across Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, have boosted the outlook for the main crop, with large volumes expected to enter the market from mid-October.

At the same time, stronger South American harvests are expected to push 2025/26 production roughly 186,000 tons above consumption, helping rebuild global stocks depleted by consecutive poor West African harvests.

Ecuador, the world’s third-largest cocoa grower, is expected to see production rise 5% to 580,000 tons next season, potentially surpassing Ghana to become the second-largest producer.