DXY: Dollar Index Dives After Job Losses Juice Traders’ Optimism on Easier Policy

Stocks gained, Bitcoin gained even more, but the greenback pulled back because rate-cut bets surged to more than 90%. Why next week is key.

📉 Dollar Slides as Cut Bets Surge

• The US dollar index DXY sank below 99.00 early Thursday as traders priced in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut next week. That’s up from less than 50% just weeks ago. When rates fall, the dollar usually loses its shine.
• The currency gauge has now dropped in eight of the past nine sessions, marking its longest losing streak since mid-2020. Momentum has flipped decisively bearish as macro data softens.
• Weak ADP numbers showing 32,000 private-sector job losses in November added pressure, reinforcing the narrative that the US economy is slowing enough to force easier policy.

📈 Risk Assets Love a Softer Dollar

• Stocks moved higher, with the S&P 500 inching closer to its October record as investors embraced the “bad news is good news” playbook.
• Bitcoin jumped 2% to reclaim $93,000, extending its rebound and benefiting from the weaker dollar (crypto often rallies when the buck retreats).
• FX traders pushed the EURUSD above the key $1.1660 level before sellers defended it again. Resistance remains in play.

🏦 All Eyes on Next Week’s Fed

• The Fed meets next week and could cut rates for a third consecutive meeting, a move that could aid the dollar’s slide into year-end.
• Traders will also watch updated projections for clues on how aggressive easing might be in early 2026. Dovish signals usually mean more risk for the dollar.
• With sentiment tilted heavily against the greenback, even a mildly hawkish surprise could spark a sharp reversal. Next week’s decision is shaping up as make-or-break for the trend.