Pierre's H4 EMA/MA Compression Strategy (BTC)

Pierre's logic and trading strategy from the X post and its related threads. The post focuses on Bitcoin (BTC) price action on a 4-hour (H4) chart, using Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and Moving Averages (MAs) to identify a potential "EMA/MA compression" scenario, which is a key part of his analysis.



Summary of Pierre's Logic

Pierre is analyzing Bitcoin's price movement on the H4 timeframe, focusing on a technical pattern he calls "EMA/MA compression." This concept is central to his analysis and involves the interaction of key moving averages (H4 100 MA, H4 200 EMA, and H4 300 MA) to predict price behavior. Here's the breakdown of his logic:

EMA/MA Compression Concept:

Pierre describes "EMA/MA compression" as a scenario where the price consolidates around key moving averages, leading to a tightening of volatility before a breakout or breakdown.

In this case, the H4 100 MA, H4 200 EMA, and H4 300 MA are the critical levels to watch. These moving averages act as dynamic support/resistance levels, and their behavior (break, hold, or flip) dictates the trend direction.

He notes that this compression often follows a cycle: EMA/MA compression → Trend → Gap Fills → Repeat. This cycle suggests that after a compression phase, the price tends to trend, fill any price gaps, and then return to another compression phase.

Key Levels and Conditions for a Bullish Scenario:

H4 100 MA: Must break or flip to the upside. A break above this level signals bullish momentum, while a failure to hold above it (a "flip") invalidates the bullish case.

H4 200 EMA: Acts as an "intermediary" level that must hold during pullbacks. If this level holds, it supports the bullish structure.

H4 300 MA: A critical support level. It must hold to keep the bullish scenario intact. If the price loses this level (and it flips to resistance), the bullish outlook is invalidated.

Pierre mentions that after the price breaks the H4 100 MA, it should aim to fill gaps between 109.5 and 110.5 (likely in thousands, so $109,500–$110,500). If the H4 200 EMA holds, the price might pull back to the H4 300 MA, where it could consolidate further before continuing the trend.

Invalidation Scenarios:

The bullish scenario is invalidated if:

The H4 100 MA is broken and flips to resistance (i.e., price closes below it after initially breaking above).

The H4 300 MA is lost and flips to resistance (i.e., price closes below it and fails to reclaim it).

Current Market Context:

Pierre notes a "nice bounce" in BTC's price, bringing it back into the compression zone. The price is currently fighting a key area on lower timeframes (LTF), likely referring to shorter timeframes like H1 or M15.

He mentions that all gaps have been filled for now (referencing the cycle of gap fills), which aligns with his expectation of reduced volatility as the price enters another compression phase.

Historical Context and Consistency:

Pierre has been tracking this scenario since the H4 100 MA break, as shared in his group @TheHavenCrypto

. He references notes from Monday (likely June 2, 2025, as the post is from June 6), indicating that his analysis has been consistent over the week.

In a follow-up post, he reflects on a recent trade where he took partial profits on the bounce but couldn’t fully capitalize on the move due to being on his phone and managing only a fraction of his intended position size near the H4 300 MA (for BTC) and H4 200 EMA (for ETH).

Pierre's Trading Strategy

Based on the post and its context, Pierre’s trading strategy revolves around the EMA/MA compression framework. Here’s how he approaches trades:

Setup Identification:

Pierre identifies setups using the H4 timeframe, focusing on the interaction of the H4 100 MA, H4 200 EMA, and H4 300 MA.

He looks for a "compression" phase where the price consolidates around these moving averages, signaling a potential breakout or breakdown.

In this case, the price breaking the H4 100 MA to the upside was his initial signal for a bullish setup.

Entry Points:

Pierre likely entered a long position (buy) near the H4 300 MA or H4 200 EMA during the recent bounce, as he mentions taking partial profits on the move.

He prefers entering after a pullback to these key levels (e.g., H4 200 EMA or H4 300 MA) as long as they hold as support. For example, in Thread 1 (Post 1930270942871118081), he shares a chart showing a long entry near the H4 300 MA with an upside target near 110,000–111,000.

Target Setting:

His primary target after the H4 100 MA break is to fill gaps between $109,500 and $110,500.

If the price reaches these levels and the H4 200 EMA holds, he expects a potential pullback to the H4 300 MA, followed by another leg up (as part of the trend phase in his cycle).

Risk Management:

Pierre sets clear invalidation levels:

A close below the H4 100 MA after breaking above it.

A close below the H4 300 MA with a failure to reclaim it.

He takes partial profits on bounces, as seen in his follow-up post where he mentions securing gains but not fully capitalizing on the move due to limited position size.

Position Sizing and Execution:

Pierre mentions being limited by trading from his phone, which restricted his position size. This suggests he typically scales into trades with a planned size but adjusts based on execution conditions.

He also notes going "AFK for the weekend" after taking profits, indicating a disciplined approach to stepping away from the market when not actively monitoring.

Cycle-Based Trading:

His strategy follows the cycle of EMA/MA compression → Trend → Gap Fills → Repeat. After the gaps are filled, he expects volatility to tighten (another compression phase), which could set up the next trade.

Key Takeaways for Traders

Focus on Key Levels: Pierre’s strategy hinges on the H4 100 MA, H4 200 EMA, and H4 300 MA. These levels are used to confirm trends, identify entries, and set invalidation points.

Patience for Compression: He waits for the price to enter a compression phase (tight consolidation around MAs) before expecting a breakout or breakdown.

Gap-Filling as a Target: Pierre uses price gaps (e.g., $109,500–$110,500) as targets, aligning with the market’s tendency to fill these gaps (as noted in the related web result from investing.com about CME gaps).

Risk Management: He has clear invalidation rules and takes partial profits to lock in gains while letting the trade play out.

Cycle Awareness: His trades are part of a broader cycle (compression → trend → gap fill → repeat), which helps him anticipate market behavior.

Additional Context from Related Threads

Thread 1 (June 4–June 6): Pierre’s earlier posts (e.g., Post 1930270942871118081) show historical examples of EMA/MA compression leading to trends and gap fills, reinforcing his current analysis. He also shares a chart with a potential upside target of $110,000–$111,000 if the H4 300 MA holds.

Thread 2 (June 3): Pierre mentions a Daily (D1) timeframe analysis where the D1 100 MA and D1 200 EMA align with range lows, suggesting a potential "wet dream swing long opportunity" if the price holds these levels. This indicates he’s also considering higher timeframes for confirmation.

Thread 3 (May 27): Pierre’s earlier analysis highlights similar concepts (e.g., H4 100 MA break, H4 200 EMA hold), showing consistency in his approach over time.

Conclusion

Pierre’s logic is rooted in technical analysis, specifically the interaction of moving averages on the H4 timeframe to identify "EMA/MA compression" setups. His strategy involves buying on pullbacks to key support levels (H4 200 EMA, H4 300 MA) after a breakout (H4 100 MA), targeting gap fills ($109,500–$110,500), and managing risk with clear invalidation levels. He follows a cyclical approach to trading, expecting periods of compression, trending, and gap-filling to repeat, which guides his entries, exits, and overall market outlook.