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Leonid's Bitcoin Macro & Liquidity Regime Tracker

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🧠 Macro Overlay Score (Bitcoin Liquidity Regime Tracker)

This indicator combines the most important macroeconomic and on-chain inputs into a single unified score to help investors identify Bitcoin’s long-term cycle phases. Each input is normalized into a 0–100 score and blended using configurable weights to generate a dynamic, forward-looking macro regime tracker.

✅ Best used on the **Bitcoin All Time History Index with Weekly resolution** (`INDEX:BTCUSD`) for maximum historical context and signal clarity.

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📈 Why Macro?

Macro liquidity conditions — interest rates, monetary expansion, dollar strength, credit risk — drive Bitcoin cycles. Risk assets like BTC thrive during periods of:

  • Monetary easing
  • Liquidity injections
  • Expansionary central bank policy


This overlay surfaces those periods *before* price follows. It captures cycle shifts in the business cycle, monetary policy, and investor sentiment — making it ideal for long-term allocators, macro-aligned investors, and cycle-focused BTC holders.

🔔 This is **not** designed for short-term or swing trading. It is optimized for **macro trend confirmation and regime awareness** — not fast entry/exit signals.

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🔍 What It Tracks

Macro Inputs:
  • - 🏭 ISM 3M Trend (Business Cycle)
  • - 💹 CPI YoY (Inverted Inflation)
  • - 💵 M2 YoY + M2 Acceleration
  • - 🇨🇳 China M2 (Global Liquidity)
  • - 💱 DXY 3M Trend (USD Strength)
  • - 🏦 TGA & RRP YoY (Treasury / MMF Flows)
  • - 🏛 Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
  • - 💳 High Yield Spread (Credit Conditions)
  • - 💧 Net Liquidity Composite = WALCL – TGA – RRP


On-Chain Inputs:
  • - ⚠️ MVRV Ratio (Valuation Cycles)
  • - 🚀 Mayer Multiple Acceleration (200DMA Momentum)


---

🧩 How It Works

Each input is:
  • Normalized to a 0–100 score
  • Weighted by importance (fully configurable)
  • Combined into a **composite Macro Score**, then normalized across history


The chart will display:
  • 🔷 A 0–100 **Macro Score Line**
  • 🧭 **Cycle Phase classification**: Accumulation, Expansion, Distribution, Capitulation
  • 📊 Optional **debug table** with all sub-scores


---

🧠 Interpreting the Signal

| Signal Type | Meaning |
|-------------------|---------------------------------------------|
| Macro Score ↑ | Liquidity improving → Bullish regime forming |
| Macro Score ↓ | Liquidity deteriorating → Caution warranted |
| Score < 40 & Rising | 🔵 Accumulation cycle likely beginning |
| Score > 70 & Falling | 🟡 Distribution / Macro exhaustion |
| Net Liquidity ↑ | Strong driver of BTC upside historically |

---

❓ FAQ

Q: Why did the Macro Score peak in March 2021, but Bitcoin topped in November?
> The indicator reflects **macro liquidity**, not price momentum. M2 growth slowed, DXY bottomed, and the Fed stopped expanding WALCL by Q1 2021 — all signs of macro exhaustion. BTC continued on **residual momentum**, but the smart money began exiting months earlier.

Q: What does the score range mean?
- 0–25: Tight liquidity, unfavorable conditions
- 50: Neutral environment
- 75–100: Strong easing, liquidity surge

Q: Is this good for short-term signals?
> No. This is a **macro-level overlay**, best used for 3–12 month context shifts, not day trades.

Q: Can I adjust the weights?
> Yes. You can tune the influence of each input to match your thesis (e.g., overweight on-chain, or global liquidity).

Q: Do I need special data access?
> No. All symbols are public TradingView datasets (FRED, CryptoCap, etc.). Just use this on a BTC chart like `BTCUSD`.

---

✅ How to Use

  • - Load on **`INDEX:BTCUSD`**, set to **Weekly timeframe**
  • - Confirm long-term bottoms when score is low and rising (Accumulation → Expansion)
  • - Watch for tops when score is high and falling (Distribution → Capitulation)
  • - Combine with price structure, realized profit/loss, and market sentiment


---

🚀 If you're serious about understanding Bitcoin's macro regime, this is your alpha map. Share it, clone it, and build on it.
Note di rilascio
🧠 Macro Overlay Score (Bitcoin Liquidity Regime Tracker)

This indicator combines the most important macroeconomic and on-chain inputs into a single unified score to help investors identify Bitcoin’s long-term cycle phases. Each input is normalized into a 0–100 score and blended using configurable weights to generate a dynamic, forward-looking macro regime tracker.

✅ Best used on the **Bitcoin All Time History Index with Weekly resolution** (`INDEX:BTCUSD`) for maximum historical context and signal clarity.

---

📈 Why Macro?

Macro liquidity conditions — interest rates, monetary expansion, dollar strength, credit risk — drive Bitcoin cycles. Risk assets like BTC thrive during periods of:

Monetary easing
Liquidity injections
Expansionary central bank policy


This overlay surfaces those periods *before* price follows. It captures cycle shifts in the business cycle, monetary policy, and investor sentiment — making it ideal for long-term allocators, macro-aligned investors, and cycle-focused BTC holders.

🔔 This is **not** designed for short-term or swing trading. It is optimized for **macro trend confirmation and regime awareness** — not fast entry/exit signals.

---

🔍 What It Tracks

Macro Inputs:
- 🏭 ISM 3M Trend (Business Cycle)
- 💹 CPI YoY (Inverted Inflation)
- 💵 M2 YoY + M2 Acceleration
- 🇨🇳 China M2 (Global Liquidity)
- 💱 DXY 3M Trend (USD Strength)
- 🏦 TGA & RRP YoY (Treasury / MMF Flows)
- 🏛 Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
- 💳 High Yield Spread (Credit Conditions)
- 💧 Net Liquidity Composite = WALCL – TGA – RRP


On-Chain Inputs:
- ⚠️ MVRV Ratio (Valuation Cycles)
- 🚀 Mayer Multiple Acceleration (200DMA Momentum)


---

🧩 How It Works

Each input is:
Normalized to a 0–100 score
Weighted by importance (fully configurable)
Combined into a **composite Macro Score**, then normalized across history


The chart will display:
🔷 A 0–100 **Macro Score Line**
🧭 **Cycle Phase classification**: Accumulation, Expansion, Distribution, Capitulation
📊 Optional **debug table** with all sub-scores


---

🧠 Interpreting the Signal

| Signal Type | Meaning |
|-------------------|---------------------------------------------|
| Macro Score ↑ | Liquidity improving → Bullish regime forming |
| Macro Score ↓ | Liquidity deteriorating → Caution warranted |
| Score < 40 & Rising | 🔵 Accumulation cycle likely beginning |
| Score > 70 & Falling | 🟡 Distribution / Macro exhaustion |
| Net Liquidity ↑ | Strong driver of BTC upside historically |

---

❓ FAQ

Q: Why did the Macro Score peak in March 2021, but Bitcoin topped in November?
> The indicator reflects **macro liquidity**, not price momentum. M2 growth slowed, DXY bottomed, and the Fed stopped expanding WALCL by Q1 2021 — all signs of macro exhaustion. BTC continued on **residual momentum**, but the smart money began exiting months earlier.

Q: What does the score range mean?
- 0–25: Tight liquidity, unfavorable conditions
- 50: Neutral environment
- 75–100: Strong easing, liquidity surge

Q: Is this good for short-term signals?
> No. This is a **macro-level overlay**, best used for 3–12 month context shifts, not day trades.

Q: Can I adjust the weights?
> Yes. You can tune the influence of each input to match your thesis (e.g., overweight on-chain, or global liquidity).

Q: Do I need special data access?
> No. All symbols are public TradingView datasets (FRED, CryptoCap, etc.). Just use this on a BTC chart like `BTCUSD`.

---

✅ How to Use

- Load on **`INDEX:BTCUSD`**, set to **Weekly timeframe**
- Confirm long-term bottoms when score is low and rising (Accumulation → Expansion)
- Watch for tops when score is high and falling (Distribution → Capitulation)
- Combine with price structure, realized profit/loss, and market sentiment

---

🚀 If you're serious about understanding Bitcoin's macro regime, this is your alpha map. Share it, clone it, and build on it.

---

Changelog
May 24, 2025
- Added `Lead/Lag Offset` feature to shift the macro score forward/backward in time
- Improved normalization of macro inputs
- Minor plot styling adjustments
Note di rilascio
Replaced the labels that are hard to read and move around/collide with a static table on the bottom right. This is easier to read, showing the proper values for what combines to be the total score. Should be more informative & easier to digest will also scale better.
Note di rilascio
Updated what inputs are editable along with what weights. Fixed the order of the settings to match the output table.

Declinazione di responsabilità

Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.