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Forward Vol Carry Signal

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A quantitative indicator that identifies volatility mispricings using short-term vs medium-term implied volatility

This indicator measures the term structure of volatility by comparing a short-dated volatility index (VIX9D) with a longer-dated volatility benchmark. Its purpose is to detect volatility curve inversions, a condition where short-term implied volatility rises significantly above medium-term implied volatility.

What This Indicator Shows
Short-Term vs Long-Term Vol Curves (colored)
  • Short-term vol (e.g., VIX9D) = teal
  • Long-term vol (VX2!) = purple
These curves help visualize when near-term panic (short vol) decouples from medium-term expectations (long vol).

This situation often signals:
  • Overreaction in short-term IV
  • Mispricing in the term structure
  • A potential opportunity for forward-volatility carry trades
Clear Trading Signals
Long Forward Vol Signal
  • Triggered when the short-term vol significantly exceeds long-term vol.
  • (Useful for entering long forward-vol structures: long 2M ATM straddle + short 1M ATM straddle.)
Short Forward Vol Signal (optional)
  • Triggered when short-term vol is unusually depressed relative to long-term vol.
Exit Signals
  • Generated automatically when the inversion condition is no longer met.
Customizable Features
  • Select your short-term and long-term volatility sources
    (VIX9D, VIX, VIX3M, VX1!, VX2!, etc.)
  • Toggle the slope plot ON/OFF
  • Toggle threshold bands (inversion/normal) ON/OFF
  • Adjust inversion and depressed-threshold settings
Note di rilascio
Updated Chart
Note di rilascio
Changing VX3 to VX2

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