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MBODDS GLOBAL - Enhanced

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MBODDS GLOBAL Indicator – Detailed Interpretation
What does the indicator measure?
Liquidity preferences
Credit risk perception
Market stress levels
Interpreting the ODDS Value
ODDS Value Explanation
Positive ODDS (> 0) SOFR is higher than the T-Bill rate → Interbank liquidity is more expensive → Possible financial stress.
Negative ODDS (< 0) T-Bill rates are higher than SOFR → The government pays more interest in the short term → Liquidity abundance, normal market conditions.
ODDS ≈ 0 Neutral market state → Low stress, market is stable.
Z-Score Interpretation (Extremity Analysis)
The Z-Score measures the standard deviation of ODDS, detecting extreme values:
Z-Score Meaning
> +1.0 Spread is unusually high → Stress/crisis risk increases.
< -1.0 Spread is unusually low → Liquidity could be abundant.
> +2.0 Extremely high spread → Systemic risk (observed during 2008-2020 periods).
≈ 0 Average level → Normal conditions, no notable risk.
The Z-Score functions as an "anomaly detector" for this indicator.
SMA (Simple Moving Average) Interpretation
The 21-day SMA shows the trend of ODDS:
ODDS consistently above SMA: Rising stress and credit costs.
ODDS consistently below SMA: Easier liquidity and lower market concerns.
Threshold Bands (±0.5)
These thresholds are visual guides for alerts:
ODDS > +0.5: Rising stress, potential liquidity tightening → Risky environment.
ODDS < -0.5: Low spread → Abundant liquidity, low stress → Comfortable environment.
Use Cases
Macro analysis (especially after Fed policy changes)
Direction determination in bond, equity, or credit markets
Early signal for stressful periods
Predicting liquidity crises
Conclusion:
This indicator acts as a macro-based "silent alarm." Specifically:
SOFR > T-Bill and Z-Score > 1: Stress and risk are increasing, protection strategies should be considered.
T-Bill > SOFR and Z-Score < -1: Liquidity is abundant, risk appetite may rise.
MBODDS GLOBAL Indicator – Detailed Interpretation
What does the indicator measure?
Liquidity preferences
Credit risk perception
Market stress levels
Interpreting the ODDS Value
ODDS Value Explanation
Positive ODDS (> 0) SOFR is higher than the T-Bill rate → Interbank liquidity is more expensive → Possible financial stress.
Negative ODDS (< 0) T-Bill rates are higher than SOFR → The government pays more interest in the short term → Liquidity abundance, normal market conditions.
ODDS ≈ 0 Neutral market state → Low stress, market is stable.
Z-Score Interpretation (Extremity Analysis)
The Z-Score measures the standard deviation of ODDS, detecting extreme values:
Z-Score Meaning
> +1.0 Spread is unusually high → Stress/crisis risk increases.
< -1.0 Spread is unusually low → Liquidity could be abundant.
> +2.0 Extremely high spread → Systemic risk (observed during 2008-2020 periods).
≈ 0 Average level → Normal conditions, no notable risk.
The Z-Score functions as an "anomaly detector" for this indicator.
SMA (Simple Moving Average) Interpretation
The 21-day SMA shows the trend of ODDS:
ODDS consistently above SMA: Rising stress and credit costs.
ODDS consistently below SMA: Easier liquidity and lower market concerns.
Threshold Bands (±0.5)
These thresholds are visual guides for alerts:
ODDS > +0.5: Rising stress, potential liquidity tightening → Risky environment.
ODDS < -0.5: Low spread → Abundant liquidity, low stress → Comfortable environment.
Use Cases
Macro analysis (especially after Fed policy changes)
Direction determination in bond, equity, or credit markets
Early signal for stressful periods
Predicting liquidity crises
Conclusion:
This indicator acts as a macro-based "silent alarm." Specifically:
SOFR > T-Bill and Z-Score > 1: Stress and risk are increasing, protection strategies should be considered.
T-Bill > SOFR and Z-Score < -1: Liquidity is abundant, risk appetite may rise.
Script protetto
Questo script è pubblicato come codice protetto. Tuttavia, è possibile utilizzarlo liberamente e senza alcuna limitazione – per saperne di più clicca qui.
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Script protetto
Questo script è pubblicato come codice protetto. Tuttavia, è possibile utilizzarlo liberamente e senza alcuna limitazione – per saperne di più clicca qui.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.