Nexural Fisher Pro

Nexural Fisher Transform Ultimate

This is my take on what the Fisher Transform should have been from the start. Not a repaint of the standard indicator with a fresh coat of paint, but a ground-up rebuild using techniques from John Ehlers and quantitative finance that actually make a difference.

What This Indicator Does

The Fisher Transform converts price into a Gaussian normal distribution, which sounds complicated but really just means it gives you clear overbought and oversold readings with sharp turning points. The problem with the standard Fisher Transform is that it was designed decades ago and has some serious limitations. This version addresses those limitations directly.

The Core Improvements

Adaptive Period via Dominant Cycle Measurement

Instead of guessing what lookback period works best, this indicator measures the dominant cycle in the market using autocorrelation and adjusts itself automatically. In choppy markets it becomes more responsive. In smooth trends it slows down to avoid false signals. You no longer have to optimize the length setting for every instrument and timeframe because the indicator
does it for you.

Tanh Normalization

The standard Fisher Transform has a nasty habit of spiking to extreme values during volatile moves. You have probably seen Fisher readings of plus or minus 8 or even higher which makes the indicator almost unreadable. This version uses hyperbolic tangent normalization to mathematically bound the output. The indicator stays within a consistent range regardless of market conditions so your overbought and oversold levels actually mean something.
Efficiency Ratio Regime Detection

This is the feature that changes how you use the indicator. The Efficiency Ratio measures whether the market is trending or ranging on a scale from zero to one. A high reading means price is moving efficiently in one direction which indicates a trend. A low reading means price is chopping around which indicates a range.

Why does this matter? Because oscillators work completely differently in trends versus ranges. In a ranging market you want to fade overbought and oversold readings. In a trending market those same signals will destroy you as the market stays overbought or oversold for extended periods while continuing in the trend direction.

The info panel shows you the current regime so you know how to interpret the signals. When it says Trending you trust the direction and ignore the zones. When it says Ranging you trust the zones and fade the extremes.

Volume Weighted Calculation

High volume bars have more influence on the Fisher calculation than low volume bars. This means the indicator responds more to moves that have real participation behind them and filters out low volume noise. The weighting is clamped to prevent any single bar from dominating the calculation.

Ehlers Super Smoother

Rather than using a simple moving average or exponential moving average for smoothing, this indicator uses the Ehlers Super Smoother which is a two pole filter specifically designed to remove noise without adding lag. The math behind it is based on signal processing theory and it genuinely works better than traditional smoothing methods.

How To Use It

The indicator shows two lines. The main Fisher line changes color based on direction. Green means bullish momentum and red means bearish momentum. The white trigger line is the previous bar value and crossovers between the two lines indicate momentum shifts.
The info panel in the corner gives you everything at a glance. State tells you the current direction. Zone tells you if the indicator is overbought, oversold, or neutral. Regime tells you if the market is trending, ranging, or mixed. ER shows you the raw Efficiency Ratio value. Period shows you the current adaptive lookback being used. Fisher shows you the exact indicator
value.

For ranging markets look for bullish crosses when the indicator is in oversold territory and bearish crosses when the indicator is in overbought territory. These are mean reversion setups.
For trending markets use the indicator to confirm trend direction and look for pullback entries when the indicator dips toward the zero line without reaching oversold or overbought extremes.
Strengths

The adaptive period is the biggest advantage. Most traders either use a default setting that works sometimes or spend hours optimizing settings that stop working when market conditions change. This indicator handles that problem automatically.

The regime detection is genuinely useful. Knowing whether to fade extremes or ride momentum is half the battle with any oscillator and this indicator tells you directly.
The bounded output means your levels are consistent. When the indicator hits 1.5 it means the same thing today as it did last month. You are not constantly adjusting your interpretation based on recent volatility.

The volume weighting adds a layer of confirmation that most oscillators lack entirely. Moves on high volume carry more weight which aligns with how markets actually work.
Weaknesses

No indicator predicts the future. This indicator tells you about momentum and regime but it does not tell you where to place your stop or what your target should be. It is a tool not a strategy.

The adaptive period can occasionally shift during volatile transitions which may cause the indicator to behave slightly differently than expected. The smoothing minimizes this but it can still happen.

Like all oscillators this indicator is better at identifying conditions than timing exact entries. A cross into oversold does not mean price stops falling immediately. It means conditions favor a bounce but the timing of that bounce requires additional analysis.

The regime detection has a slight lag because it needs data to determine whether the market is trending or ranging. At the exact moment of a regime change the indicator may still show the previous state for a few bars.
What This Is Not

This is not a signal service. There are no buy and sell arrows because markets are more nuanced than that. A bullish cross in a range means something completely different than a bullish cross in a trend and treating them the same is how traders lose money.

This is not a holy grail. It will not turn a losing trader into a winning trader on its own. It is a well built tool that gives you better information than the standard Fisher Transform.

This is not overfitted to historical data. The techniques used here are based on principles that have been validated across decades of market data. There is no curve fitting or optimization to make backtests look good.

Final Thoughts

I built this because I got tired of indicators that looked good in marketing but fell apart in live trading. The standard Fisher Transform has real value but the standard implementation has real problems. This version solves those problems using math that actually makes sense.

If you understand what the indicator is telling you and combine it with solid risk management and market structure analysis, it will serve you well. If you are looking for something to tell you exactly when to buy and sell, keep looking because that does not exist.

This is an excellent indicator on the 5-15 time frame. Use it wisely.