Gap Rider
This Indicator allows you to make statistics on the performance of any underlying on the days in which an opening gap occurs.
Specifically, the indicator was designed for "0 dte" options trades. In fact, it is possible to find parameters that give a good statistical advantage by opening a spread in the direction of the gap, creating a trade that has a risk-return ratio of 1: 1.
The indicator shows flags on the graph (green in case of gap up, red in case of gap down) and colored boxes (green in case the stock closed in the direction of the gap, red in case the stock closed in the opposite direction to the gap, yellow in the event that the stock closed at a distance that did not allow the spread in options to close in maximum loss or maximum profit, and therefore in breakeven)
The statistics panel, on the other hand, contains all the information necessary to search for parameters that give the trader a good statistical advantage.
In the settings you can filter the days of the week, only gap up or only gap down, ATR thresholds (volatility), points or minimum percentage for which a gap is taken into account, measure of the breakeven (which for options traders should represent the half the width of the spread to open), large gaps filter that takes into consideration only gaps that open out of range compared to the previous session. The Lookback parameter of course is used to set how many bars to take into account for the statistics.
Parameters and recommended strategy:
TODAY 31/08/2021 - Lookback 500 bars (2 years)
UNDERLYING: SPX
FILTERS: only Monday and Wednesday, only gap up, only gap> 0.01%
STRATEGY: exactly at opening, cover an ATM spread in the direction of the gap (example: gap up, I open a long call spread) that has the opening price as a break even, with a risk-return ratio of 1: 1 and leave it open until closing session, or set take profit at 90-95%. It is advisable to take into consideration the SPX statistics but to operate on the ES future so as to be able to open the spread a couple of minutes before the opening of the cash session and prevent the trade from "running away" due to too sudden movements of the opening. .
RESULTS:
124 Trade
70% profitable trades
30% losing trades
Max drawdown 3 trades
So assuming a spread on ES 10 points wide, each trade would gain or lose $ 250, applying the described strategy we would have in two years, investing only $ 250, a profit of $ 12500, with a max drawdown of $ 750. We would therefore have a profit of 5000%, or rather 2500% per year on the invested capital, with a drawdown of a much lower proportion of the profit ($ 750 compared to $ 6250 of annual profit).
The strategy is infinitely scalable by increasing the options contracts used and the impact of the commissions is almost zero.
MONEY MANAGEMENT: Example on a 50K account, with a spread that earns or loses $ 500, in two years it earns $ 25,000, therefore about 12500 per year, with a max drawdown of $ 1500, therefore 25% per year on the ENTIRE ACCOUNT with a maximum drawdown of 3%.
Note: the test was performed without a break even parameter, so the actual result will be more moderate, but of the same explosive nature.
** BUG STILL LOOKING FOR SOLUTION **
only in case the filters are set to take into account ONLY the gap down, the drawdown count in the statistics panel shows an incorrect result "
Specifically, the indicator was designed for "0 dte" options trades. In fact, it is possible to find parameters that give a good statistical advantage by opening a spread in the direction of the gap, creating a trade that has a risk-return ratio of 1: 1.
The indicator shows flags on the graph (green in case of gap up, red in case of gap down) and colored boxes (green in case the stock closed in the direction of the gap, red in case the stock closed in the opposite direction to the gap, yellow in the event that the stock closed at a distance that did not allow the spread in options to close in maximum loss or maximum profit, and therefore in breakeven)
The statistics panel, on the other hand, contains all the information necessary to search for parameters that give the trader a good statistical advantage.
In the settings you can filter the days of the week, only gap up or only gap down, ATR thresholds (volatility), points or minimum percentage for which a gap is taken into account, measure of the breakeven (which for options traders should represent the half the width of the spread to open), large gaps filter that takes into consideration only gaps that open out of range compared to the previous session. The Lookback parameter of course is used to set how many bars to take into account for the statistics.
Parameters and recommended strategy:
TODAY 31/08/2021 - Lookback 500 bars (2 years)
UNDERLYING: SPX
FILTERS: only Monday and Wednesday, only gap up, only gap> 0.01%
STRATEGY: exactly at opening, cover an ATM spread in the direction of the gap (example: gap up, I open a long call spread) that has the opening price as a break even, with a risk-return ratio of 1: 1 and leave it open until closing session, or set take profit at 90-95%. It is advisable to take into consideration the SPX statistics but to operate on the ES future so as to be able to open the spread a couple of minutes before the opening of the cash session and prevent the trade from "running away" due to too sudden movements of the opening. .
RESULTS:
124 Trade
70% profitable trades
30% losing trades
Max drawdown 3 trades
So assuming a spread on ES 10 points wide, each trade would gain or lose $ 250, applying the described strategy we would have in two years, investing only $ 250, a profit of $ 12500, with a max drawdown of $ 750. We would therefore have a profit of 5000%, or rather 2500% per year on the invested capital, with a drawdown of a much lower proportion of the profit ($ 750 compared to $ 6250 of annual profit).
The strategy is infinitely scalable by increasing the options contracts used and the impact of the commissions is almost zero.
MONEY MANAGEMENT: Example on a 50K account, with a spread that earns or loses $ 500, in two years it earns $ 25,000, therefore about 12500 per year, with a max drawdown of $ 1500, therefore 25% per year on the ENTIRE ACCOUNT with a maximum drawdown of 3%.
Note: the test was performed without a break even parameter, so the actual result will be more moderate, but of the same explosive nature.
** BUG STILL LOOKING FOR SOLUTION **
only in case the filters are set to take into account ONLY the gap down, the drawdown count in the statistics panel shows an incorrect result "
Note di rilascio:
BUG FIXED