PCCE + False Breakout Detector

PCCE + False Breakout Detector

Type: Invite‑Only Indicator (closed source)
Purpose: Identify volatility compression (“coil”) and the first expansion after it, while filtering failed breakouts (bull/bear traps).

What it does — in plain language

This tool unifies two complementary behaviours that often appear back‑to‑back around strong moves:
1. Price Coil Compression & Expansion (PCCE) – finds compact ranges created by shrinking candle bodies, wick dominance, and contracting range relative to recent history. When price expands out of that coil with strength, it prints a Burst↑ / Burst↓ label.
2. False Breakout Detection – monitors recent swing extremes. If price closes beyond a prior high/low but re‑enters that range within a short window, it marks a trap (❌ red for failed bullish breakout, ❌ green for failed bearish breakout).

Why combine them?
PCCE tells you where the next move is likely brewing; the trap filter validates whether the breakout is genuine or failing. Used together they turn raw breakouts into structured, risk‑aware opportunities.

How it works — concepts behind the calculations

1) Detecting “Coil” (compression)
• Body contraction: Count of consecutive bars where |close-open| is decreasing within a sliding window.
• Wick dominance: Average (upper wick + lower wick) / body must exceed a threshold → indecision/liquidity probing.
• Relative range: Current high‑low over the window must be smaller than the average of prior windows (tight market).
• Coil zone: When the above conditions align, the most recent high/low envelope defines the coil’s bounds.

2) Confirming “Burst” (expansion)

A breakout through the coil high/low is only labelled when:
• Body thrust: current body > moving‑average body × multiplier (large real body).
• Relative volume: volume > moving‑average volume × multiplier (participation filter).
• Trend alignment (optional): close vs EMA to avoid counter‑trend bursts.
• Cooldown: minimum bars between signals to reduce clustering.

Result: Burst↑ if closing beyond coil high with thrust; Burst↓ if closing beyond coil low with thrust.

3) Flagging failed breakouts (traps)
• Track recent swing high/low from a lookback excluding the current bar.
• If a bar closes beyond that swing but within N bars price closes back inside the swing range → flag a trap:
• Bull trap: ❌ red above bar (break above failed)
• Bear trap: ❌ green below bar (break below failed)

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What you see on the chart
• Coil zone: a shaded box (tight range envelope).
• Burst labels: Burst↑ (triangle up) and Burst↓ (triangle down) at confirmed expansion bars.
• Trap markers: ❌ red (failed bullish breakout), ❌ green (failed bearish breakout).
• Alerts: “Burst Up”, “Burst Down” (fires on bar close only).

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How to use it
1. Preparation: When a coil box forms, mark the zone and wait.
2. Trigger: A Burst label confirms the first expansion with thrust/volume; treat it as an entry cue only within your own plan.
3. Validation: If a ❌ trap appears shortly after a break, treat it as caution/exit info; the breakout is failing.
4. Context: Best on 15m–4H. Combine with higher‑timeframe bias, nearby S/R, and risk controls.
5. Parameters to tune:
• Coil window, wick‑to‑body threshold, and range tightness
• Body/volume multipliers
• EMA trend filter on/off
• Trap lookback and confirmation bars
• Cooldown bars

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Originality & usefulness
• Behaviour‑first compression scoring: Coil detection blends monotonic body shrink, wick dominance, and relative range contraction—not generic bands or a single oscillator.
• Two‑stage discipline: A burst is not just any break; it requires body thrust + relative volume (+ optional trend) to reduce noise.
• Immediate invalidation layer: The trap filter is evaluated right after the burst context, turning breakouts into risk‑aware signals rather than blind entries.
• Operator controls: Cooldown + multipliers let traders adapt the strictness to instrument/session behaviour.

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Repainting & limitations
• Signals are evaluated on bar close; no lookahead, no request.security() with lookahead_on.
• Coil boxes while forming can update until confirmed; Burst/Trap labels do not repaint after their bar closes.
• News spikes and illiquid hours can still create noise; adjust multipliers and cooldown for your market.

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Disclaimer

This indicator is an educational decision‑support tool, not financial advice. Markets are uncertain; past behaviour does not guarantee future results. Use with your own analysis and risk management.