Parsifal.Swing.Composite

The Parsifal.Swing.Composite indicator is a module within the Parsifal Swing Suite, which includes a set of swing indicators such as:

• Parsifal Swing TrendScore
• Parsifal Swing Composite
• Parsifal Swing RSI
• Parsifal Swing Flow

Each module serves as an indicator facilitating judgment of the current swing state in the underlying market.
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Background
Market movements typically follow a time-varying trend channel within which prices oscillate. These oscillations—or swings—within the trend are inherently tradable.
They can be approached:

• One-sidedly, aligning with the trend (generally safer), or
• Two-sidedly, aiming to profit from mean reversions as well.

Note: Mean reversions in strong trends often manifest as sideways consolidations, making one-sided trades more stable.
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The Parsifal Swing Suite
The modules aim to provide additional insights into the swing state within a trend and offer various trigger points to assist with entry decisions.
All modules in the suite act as weak oscillators, meaning they fluctuate within a range but are not bounded like true oscillators (e.g., RSI, which is constrained between 0% and 100%).
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The Parsifal.Swing.Composite – Specifics
This module consolidates multiple insights into price swing behavior, synthesizing them into an indicator reflecting the current swing state.
It employs layered bagging and smoothing operations based on standard price inputs (OHLC) and classical technical indicators. The module integrates several slightly different sub-modules.
Process overview:

1. Per candle/bin, sub-modules collect directional signals (up/down), with each signal casting a vote.
2. These votes are aggregated via majority counting (bagging) into a single bin vote.
3. Bin votes are then smoothed, typically with short-term EMAs, to create a sub-module vote.
4. These sub-module votes are aggregated and smoothed again to generate the final module vote.

The final vote is a score indicating the module’s assessment of the current swing state. While it fluctuates in a range, it's not a true oscillator, as most inputs are normalized via Z-scores (value divided by standard deviation over a period).
• Historically high or low values correspond to high or low quantiles, suggesting potential overbought or oversold conditions.
• The chart displays a fast (orange) and slow (white) curve against a solid background state.
• Extreme values followed by curve reversals may signal upcoming mean-reversions.

Background Value:
• Value > 0: shaded green → bullish mode
• Value < 0: shaded red → bearish mode
• The absolute value indicates confidence in the mode.
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How to Use the Parsifal.Swing.Composite
Several change points in the indicator serve as potential entry triggers:

• Fast Trigger: change in slope of the fast curve
• Trigger: fast line crossing the slow line or change in the slow curve’s slope
• Slow Trigger: change in sign of the background value

These are illustrated in the introductory chart.
Additionally, market highs and lows aligned with swing values may act as pivot points, support, or resistance levels for evolving price processes.
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As always, supplement this indicator with other tools and market information. While it provides valuable insights and potential entry points, it does not predict future prices. It reflects recent tendencies and should be used judiciously.
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Extensions
All modules in the Parsifal Swing Suite are simple yet adaptable, whether used individually or in combination.

Customization options:
• Weights in EMAs for smoothing are adjustable
• Bin vote aggregation (currently via sum-of-experts) can be modified
• Alternative weighting schemes can be tested

Advanced options:
• Bagging weights may be historical, informational, or relevance-based
• Selection algorithms (e.g., ID3, C4.5, CAT) could replace the current bagging approach
• EMAs may be generalized into expectations relative to relevance-based probability
• Negative weights (akin to wavelet transforms) can be incorporated