EURUSD/Forex Multi-Layer Statistical Regression Strategy v2

📌 EUR/USD Multi-Layer Statistical Regression Strategy v2

This strategy uses multi-layer linear regression models (short, medium, and long-term) with adaptive statistical validation to generate high-confidence trading signals on EUR/USD. It combines rigorous statistical checks, dynamic weighting, and risk management into a single robust framework.

🔍 Core Methodology

Three Regression Layers:

Short-term, medium-term, and long-term linear regressions.

Statistical Validation:

R², correlation, and slope significance filters.

Adaptive thresholds that adjust based on recent market behavior.

Dynamic Ensemble:

Signals from each layer are combined using performance-based weights.

Weights adapt over time depending on layer accuracy and reliability.

📊 Signal Generation

Primary & Fallback Tests: Ensures signals remain robust even when strict thresholds aren’t met.

Quality Scoring: Layers contribute proportionally to their statistical strength.

Ensemble Confidence: Combines agreement across layers, statistical reliability, and validation accuracy.

Long/Short Entries trigger when:

Ensemble score crosses ±0.3

Confidence exceeds user-defined threshold

Multiple layers confirm trend direction

⚖️ Risk & Money Management

Position Sizing: Adaptive, based on confidence levels.

Daily Loss Protection: Strategy halts if losses exceed user-set maximum (% of equity).

Confidence-Based Scaling: Larger trades placed when ensemble confidence is stronger.

📺 Visualization

Regression lines plotted for each timeframe (short/medium/long).

Background coloring for bullish/bearish confidence zones.

Signal markers for entries (green up-triangle = Long, red down-triangle = Short).

Live statistics dashboard with:

R² values & significance checks

Ensemble score & confidence

Adaptive thresholds & reliability metrics

Net profit tracking

⚠️ Notes

Best suited for EUR/USD on higher intraday or daily timeframes.

Parameters are fully configurable for testing across other assets.

Strategy includes slippage, commissions, and capital controls for more realistic backtests.

👉 In short:
This is a regression-based ensemble trading system that adapts to changing market conditions, validates its own predictions, and dynamically adjusts trade sizing while respecting strict risk management rules.